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HomeMy WebLinkAboutGIS Power Supply budget Purchased P wer Power Supp)y GIS Overview of 2006 Budget Board Presentation 9-15-2005 Purchased Power What we will be covering • Purchased Power • Organization Chart • Purchased Power Expenditure Detail • Historical and Forecasted Budgets • Monthly Power Supply Expenditure Detail - Handout • UAMPS "Quick and Dirty" Market Report - Handout • Summary and Expectations • Power Supply • GIS applications 2 L Purchased Power - Organization Purchased Power _, Org. Chart 2 005 Beard of Directors Truckee Donner PUD General Manager Power Supply Engineer 3 a t` i Purchased Power • Purchased Power includes just three Activity Codes that make up the Electricity Purchase Expense , but these three make up the majority of the Electric Budget. The Activities are : - 536 Energy Supplier (Constellation) - 534 Transmission (Sierra Pacific Power Company) - 531 Scheduling (NCPA: Northern California Power Agency) • All other expenses are included in the Power Supply Budget 4 • i � I Purchased Power - Expenditure Detail Budget # Budget Budget 2005 2006 Rates • Total Energy Supply Constellation (536.00) $79609,621 $8,059,456 This account includes the energy purchases from our Constellation contract. The Contract includes the monthly energy blocks along with the calls, puts that are used to shape our power. • Transmission — SPPCo. (534.00) $901,136 $893,023 Rates This account pays for our NITS (Network Integrated Transmission Service) within Sierra Pacific Power Company's transmission control area. Once the energy reaches SPPCo transmission control area, this pays for the transmission to the District Substations. This was estimated in 2005 when we had an outstanding tariff rate case. The 2005 estimate was the worst case scenario that Sierra Pacific was proposing. The rate case was settled and the new rates started in May 2005. The 2006 estimate takes into account the new settlement of that tariff therefore it is lower than 2005. • Scheduling NCPA (531.00) $749400 $749000 Rates This account pays NCPA for the prescheduling and day ahead forecasting of our hourly 5 schedules. This is budgeted at $6,200 per month without any expected increase. Historical and Forecasted Budgeted by Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total Costs By Vendor Energy Supply—Constellation $ 7,609,621 8,073,663 8,214,110 11,099,729 Transmission-SPPCo.$ 901,136 893,023 951,106 966,353 Scheduling—NCPA $ 74,400 74,400 76,260 78,167 Total Bulk Power Costs $ $8,585,157 $9,041,086 $9,241,476 $12,144,248 Total Delivered Cost $1MWH $63.02 $60.13 $60.26 $77.41 Net Supply (kWh) 145,382,066 150,376,868 153,384,377 156,900,274 6 liii" `�fh�lY�W i�i iil' �01 jwV�Ci�'`wW�Ai��r�iwwvl�w' • � � I s s ��"PII . Monthly Detail of Purchased Power • See Handout of 2006, 2007 and 2008 monthly forecasts. Note the change in block price in 2008 • Review UAM PS "Quick and Dirty Market Report" 05914 2006 2007 2008 7 OPERATIONS STAFF Marshall Empey-Operations&Planning 801-327-6605 Nathan Hardy-Power Resources 801-327-6621 p Dos Gray-Power Scheduling 801-327-6632 Kelton Andersen-Power Analyst 801-327-6606 r�-/^g� �'y J}��'*�'�' �+ T �y�g+ Real Time Operations Desk 801-327-6619 !!bl 4/.L 4<ell A Lld1 l l f! tJ 1 .Ct,l 9/1412005 7:30;00 AM a Conirad Mont Od'05 ru,,15 eac G5 Jan'o f Feb'06 Mar'06 All b Nay'W Jun'66 of 06 A,o, on,ns OLt'08 %,06 pec'C6 Jan'07 Peb 07 Mar 07 Apr'07 Miry 07 Jun'07 7:45:00 AM Last $lo a $1149 $1194 $1226 $12.09 1 11 83 S 960 $ 917 $ 929 $ 933 S 92a $ 922 $ 925 6 962 $10.1g $1lio $lU11 $10.18 $ 850 $ 824 $ 8.28 Toya ,char e ii, 4 S $ O S $ $ Z Contrail McMM1 Od'05 Nw'05 peC05 J3n'O6 rub�W Mar C6 Apr 06 May 06 1.1,06 of C6 A,or Sep r6 no C6 N-C6 Gec'W r Jan 0T Feb'07 Mar 07 A '07 May.7 Juo'07 O 7:,adtiAM last $6382 $6a46 S65M $6548 $6567 $6568 $6549 $65.45 $6568 $6523 Ini.50 Iforn $E461 $w66 $6505 $o28 $64.10 $6393 $6376 $63.53 S6340 Ti scree $ - $ $ if _ If _e7 ao A NYMEX LIGHT 3WEET CRUDE NYM,.E,X"HENRY NUyB{GAS r .C %ar'n�4#r { z' i nsv`"•+4 f- Ova ty ,2r,d�,� r � >�,.,Y � at° a far` , „r'.z' .0+ s.0t.•s rrr 'v4`,,, r sy".{ ,2,. re^a Fs"'.,x fi,� . �}�'<r %' r,,, ri" d l' <..r'$<{{a Sn s r ras � ra r Y �r'a r",+, ;r ?r{< a' lrr',r.r l ,a "<' r' r r sf '• Lr`f�rr a62.61 r "�P'rtr'',2`<f1�S���r'i<<'',' 04��,�{`r'�•��'%�' 's'# y'°<fZ�r � rf d5 5. � -'-5 r,1.Y r,s ti n s�<�. �r<ti< �,II';f.,<_�� r,„�l'. J o,e 01 Fb-'Sr nJr%v 1.01 AUF'Uo -1 06 Ca-'Lfi Gel-0. Av li7 << a_ C , Feb s: a o, a w L 5 x Je .:6..<.lic c> ,b 3' or j.o fifir WECC FORWARD POWER PRICES MggEOV DEC 2006200 2009 20i0 { y `r"�'F y $93 o06 x+7 $u. E721�00,6 .,6 s7 �r �tfuri 58400 1t87a $ g6�.zs - _ 978.00 Fw StaMaM ProOUGs:6XIs 6X8* g c J. S ew $sE.� / za,Janw�y mrou noenember { $7 00 $ rr,fi;,� -- s zoo Mona/Nebo Spark Spread(On Peak) Off Peak '�"'^s�.�a, s66.00 Heat Rate OCT NOV DEC 2006 OCT NOV DEC 2006 S63,00 780 - 660.o0 S3 800 ; . - 654-00 8.20 Full 840 r. " - S48.00 900 10 In'r MA DM- � 842.00 SC t2-5-50 s ro ,00• ma _ooq eoro SS�{Jebo 9weet9Fat FUIkNebp Fully loetlee SGNaeG et Stmge(,yde ,orankc,rlrge.,: Increased global supply of oil intended to help the USA after Katrina has resulted in strong move down in Crude Futures. Gas has been sympathetically weak- However,a cool down across the country has helped alleviate gas demand over the last week. -Last Nears Hurricane Ivan cause 172 BCF of lost production front the Gulf after 5 month`, Its expected that Katrina will be far worse to production out of the Gulf. -Short term pooker prices in the Vest have fallen slightly with the cooler temps and reduced demand However,longer tern)power has remained stable. - Continue to watch for information pertnmm>to gas supply, esp. in the Gulf producing legion. Going into the$c inter,gas ikrill be the strongest indicator of winter power pricing. - SJS Coo<• ni h!orgor-Current D-ea fl<.Condi±lops in the USA - C''rr�te P udicPi�*Center_winter i em and Preci i4a,'en Por ca.t Daily OPDiam{a and Gene,at Ndes"ern.Mint C 0i N.,,V5 Dee'05 Jan lie Feb'W as,06 A x'06 sly 06 onion JW% Aug'O6 Sep C6 01 an Nov W Dec. Jan 07 Feb'07 M.07 Apr'07 May'07 Jun'07 Rockies Financial Basls(this ftw a(-n 206 1.36 1.36 136 1,36 136 124 1.24 1,24 1.24 124 124 124 118 118 1,18 1,18 IA8 1,18 1.18 1,18 Opal Physkal Index 0.02 0.02 002 0.02 002 0.02 002 002 002 002 002 0.02 002 0,02 0.02 002 002 002 002 0,02 002 Transport Basis to Nebo 0,07 0.07 0,07 007 0.07 007 0,07 can 007 0,07 007 0,07 007 0.07 007 007 007 0,07 007 aG7 0,07 Ezpeete!Gas§ Nebo 8.97 10.22 10.67 10.93 10.82 10.56 8.45 8.02 8.14 8.18 8.09 8.07 8,10 8.53 9.01 124 9.22 9.09 7.41 7.16 7.19 N...Genera0on C051 @Srnple Cycle 115.35 13091 136.63 13983 13845 13520 +09.63 ID345 INIM 10545 104.W 101A8 104.45 1DI19 11583 1186a 11845 11683 95.76 92.59 53.01 W/O&M of$320 @$weetsp0l 7498 6494 8859 9p 64 8916 6768 7080 6736 an 31 6854 6790 6776 68W 7142 7528 77W 7696 7592 62" W40 6068 QO mn.fifoRl 78.56 8902 92W 9501 9a.09 9190 74.19 7057 7157 7191 7114 7G 99 7124 7483 7888 8077 8065 79% 6540 6326 6355 DISCLPJMER'@WnLuretl bein(wmeLort&purposes wrty patesney x(be rel/ab/a antlAsv6letl to c»aryge Maycnntainproprltra m,mmarbnanr//ano((O dignbudwalol LrecarseN_ TDPUD 2006 Projected Power Cost CWm as of August/2,2005 Jan Feb Mar Ayr May Jun Jul Aug Sep W Nov Dec Total Average Retail AnnualMW load /4,B66,155 13,31 T,755 13238,238 /1,476,023 11,125,219 10,9]8.584 12,229,402 12,166,804 //,161,513 11,904,262 12,994,155 14,710,018 150.168,128 $/KWH Losses(6.3%) 936,568 839,019 634009 M.989 700,889 691,651 770,452 766,609 703.175 74%969 818,632 926,731 9,460,592 Net Load 13,929,687 12,478,737 12,404,229 10,753,034 10,424,330 10,286,933 11,458,949 11,400.295 10,468,338 11,154,293 12,175.523 13,783287 14 ,707,536 $OA280 $18,010,565 Stock Purchase 14,712,W0 13,312,000 12.872,000 9,992.000 10,000,000 9,704,000 11,248,000 10,896,000 10,176,000 10,960,000 12,048,000 13,636,000 139456,W0 Incremental Purchase 693,957 533,451 782576 1,595,892 1,232,606 1,3n,594 1,187,004 1,373,464 1,101,772 1,094,079 1,084,192 1,434,098 13,441,275 Burp.Sales 1539,8021 1527,6951 (416,337) (61 868) (107,388) (1031010) (206 202) pw,650) (116,259) (149,817) (l W,W7) 1260080) (2,729,147) Not Supply 14,86S155 13,317,765 13,238,238 11,476,023 11,125219 10,976SM 12,229,402 12,166.804 11161,5/3 11,904,262 12,994,155 14,710.018 150,168,128 Block Purchase Cost 734,864 664,934 642,956 499,100 499,50(l 484.715 561,838 544255 506,291 547,452 601,798 676,123 6,965,827 Incrennartel Purchase Cost 56,307 46,254 66,799 111,739 80,381 103,805 113,480 128,935 93,658 79,323 W.M7 108,817 11080,854 Surplus Sale Revenue (37,21 (36,003) (27,167) (3,064) (44851 (4,106) (11,71 (6,172) (5,712) (7,872) (8,563i (16,5431 (168,808) Net Delivered Cost 753,961 675,185 682,688 607,775 583,396 584,414 663,608 667,018 596,237 616BW 676,591 768,397 7.878,073 Transmsslon to TDPLID inc Ands. 90,319 WOOD 831399 67,B69 61,270 67,132 66,028 67,152 61,036 76,013 86,7B1 86,224 893,023 Shaping Put 8272 7,4W 8,304 6,000 8,272 8,032 8,240 8,304 8,000 8,272 8,000 8,240 97,424 Shaping Catl 6,928 8,064 8.928 8,640 5,776 5,536 5,840 5,712 5,600 5,776 6,240 8,928 83,968 Scheduhng 6,200 6,200 6,200 6,200 6,200 62W 6,200 6200 6,200 6,200 6,200 6,200 74,400 Bulk Power Cost 867,6W 777,738 789,419 698,485 664,914 671,314 749,916 754,387 677,073 716,163 783.812 876,989 9,026,888 Total Corte By Vendor Total Energy Supply-Constellation TT1,161 690,737 699,820 624,415 597,444 597,982 6n,688 681,034 609,837 632,950 690,831 785,565 8,059,465 536 Tranantawan-SPPCo. 9C,319 80,800 83,399 67,869 61,270 67,132 66,028 67,152 61,036 76,013 W,761 85,224 893,023 634 Scheduling-NCPA 6,200 6,2W 62W 6,200 6.200 62W 6,2W S2 6,200 6,200 6,200 6,200 74ADO 531 Train Bulk Power Caere 867,680 M,738 789.419 698,485 664,914 671,314 749,916 754,387 67],073 715,163 7B3,812 876,989 9,026,888 Total CeBvared Coal WAWH $58.37 $58.40 $59.63 560.86 $59.77 $61.15 $6132 $62.00 S60.66 $60.06 $6032 $59.62 $50.11 Block Purchase Price $49.95 $49.95 S49B5 $49.95 $4995 $4995 $4995 Was $4995 S49.95 $49.% $4995 $49.% Incremental Purchase Price $81.14 $86,71 $86,36 $72.28 $71,70 $7535 $95-55 $93SS $85A1 $72.50 $7688 $7588 $8041 Surplus Sales Price $68,93 $68.23 $6525 $49,52 $41,76 $39.86 $56.79 $60A3 $49,13 $52.54 $62,04 $63,61 $61.78 (1)Actual Data 7/ti2004 through fV3W2005 grossed up by 2%. TDPUD 2007 Projected Power Cost Curies as of August 12,2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Annual MW Load 15,163,478 13,133.571 13,624,193 11,773,825 11,346.050 11,175,753 12.473.990 12,410,140 11,384,743 12,142,347 13,254,038 15,585,958 153,368,085 Losses(63%) 965,299 827,416 852,024 741,751 714,601 704,072 786,861 781,839 717,239 764,968 835,004 981,915 9.662.189 Net Load 14,208.179 12,306.156 12,672,169 11,032,074 10,631.249 10,471,681 11,688,128 11,628,3oi 10,667,604 11,377,379 12,419,034 14,604,042 143,705.896 Block Purchase 15,040,000 12,896,000 13,392,000 10,416,000 9,964,000 10,080.000 11,256,000 11,224,000 10,1W.000 10,912,000 12,000,000 14,728,000 142,088.000 Incremental Purchase 711.909 638,889 602,327 1,417,446 1,423,322 1,173,344 1,380,661 1,361,543 1.305,327 1,332,031 1.341,716 1,288,866 13,977,382 Surplus Sales (588,431) (401,319) (470,IN (43,329) (61,272) (77,591) (162,672) (175,403} (80,584) (101,684) (87,678) (430,909) (2,681,005) Net Supply 15.163,478 13,133.571 13,524A93 11,790,117 11,346,050 11,175.753 12,473,990 12,410,140 11,384.743 12,142,347 13,25CO38 15,585,958 153,384,377 Block Purchase Cost 751.248 644,155 668,930 619,480 498,701 603,496 562,237 560,639 507.492 545,054 599.400 735,664 7,096,496 Incremeriml Purchase Cost 57,287 53,512 50,577 97,594 98,453 83,428 127,101 126,306 107,181 96,069 102,697 98,687 1,098,894 Surplus Sale Revenue (37.335} (26,344) (31,1127 (2,093) (2,249) _(3.046 8,857) (9.676) (3,802) (5,056) (5,395) (27,097} 1162.032) Net Delivered Cost 771.200 671.323 688,395 614,981 594,936 583,880 680,481 677,269 610,871 636,068 696.703 807,253 8,033.358 Transmission to TDPUD inc Ancil. 92.361 89,921 Bg457 72,450 67291 69,543 74,632 75,205 71,832 73,838 62.930 96,6I6 951,106 Shaping Put 8,272 7,488 8,304 8,000 8272 8,032 8,240 8,304 7,968 8,304 8,000 8.240 97,424 Shaping Cali 8,928 8,064 8,928 8,000 5,776 5,536 5,840 5712 5,664 5,712 6.240 8.928 83,328 Scheduling 6,355 6,356 6,365 6,366 6,355 6,355 6,355 6,355 6.355 6,355 6,355 6.355 76,260 Bulk Power Cost 887,117 783,152 796,439 709,786 682.629 673,346 775,548 772,845 702,691 730,276 800,227 927,422 9,241,476 Total Costs By Vendor Total Energy Supply-Constellation 788,400 686,875 706,627 630,981 608,983 597,440 694,561 691.285 624,503 650,084 710,943 824,421 8,214,110 5M Transmission-SPPCo. 92,361 89,921 84,457 72.450 67,291 691543 74,632 75.206 71.832 73,838 82,930 96,646 951,106 534 Scheduling-NCPA 6,355 6,355 6,355 6,355 6,355 6,355 6,366 6.355 6.356 6,355 6,355 6,355 76,260 531 Total Bulk Power Costs 887,117 783,152 796,439 709,786 682,629 673,346 775,548 772,845 702,691 730,276 80,227 927.422 9241.476 Total Delivered Cost$/MWH $58.50 $5963 $58.89 $60.29 $6016 $60.25 $62,17 $62.28 $61,72 $60,14 $60,38 $5950 $60.26 Block Purchase Price $49,95 $49,95 $49.95 $49,87 $49S5 $4995 $49,95 $49.95 $49.95 $49.95 $49,96 $49,95 $49,94 incremental Purchase Focus $8047 $83.76 $83.97 $68,85 $69.17 $71,10 $92,06 $92.77 $82.11 $72A2 $76S4 $76.57 $78,62 Surplus Sales Price $WA5 $65.64 $66,18 $48.31 $3621 $39.24 $54.45 $55,16 547.18 $49,72 $6153 $62,88 $60,44 (1)Actual Dow 7IV2004 through W3012005 grosimp up by 2%. TDPUD 2008 Projected Power Cost Projected Block Cost $65.00 Curves as of August 12,2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Annual MW Load 15,466,748 13,844,452 13,794,677 12,009,301 11,572,971 11,399,268 12,723,469 12,658,343 11,612,438 12,386,194 13,519,119 15.897,677 156.883,657 Losses(6.3%) 9741405 872,200 869.065 756,586 729.097 718.154 801,579 797.476 731,584 780,267 651,704 1,001,554 9,883.670 Net Load 14,492,343 12,972,251 12,925,612 11,252,715 10,843,874 10,681,114 11,921,891 11,860,867 10,880,854 11,604,927 12.667,414 14.896,123 146,999,986 Block Purchase 15,456,000 14,256,000 13,264,000 11,526,000 11,656,000 11,400,000 12,896,000 12,872,000 11.768,0 0 12,512,000 13,496,000 15,624,000 156,726,000 Incremental Purchase 666,156 376,781 854,496 712,440 353,156 379,785 381,838 369,828 331,765 460,711 558.632 1,034.182 6,479772 Surplus Sales (655,4(i8) (788,330) 1323,820) (212521) (436.185) (380,517) (554,369) (583,485) (487,327) 1587,517) (535,513) (760505) (6305496 Net Supply 16,466,748 13,844,452 13794,677 12,025,919 11,572,971 11,399,268 12,723,469 12,658,343 11.612,438 12,385.194 13,519,119 15,897,677 156,900,274 Black Purchase Cost 1,004,640 926,640 862,160 748,280 757,640 741.000 838,240 836,680 764,920 813,280 877,240 1,015,560 10,186,280 Incremental Purchase Cost 52,689 31,526 70,539 48,105 22.374 25,653 32,590 32,094 25,607 33,223 43,482 73,790 491.672 Surplus Sale Revenue (42,966) (53,049) (21,244) (11,796) (23,313) (19,352) (36,047) 38,664 (30,343j (32,385) (32,623) (45392} (387,173) Net Delivered Cost 1,014,363 905,117 911,455 784,590 756,701 747,301 834,783 830,110 760.184 614,118 886,099 1,043,957 10,290,779 Transmission to TDPUD inc Anti. 94.040 91,561 85,726 74,325 68,768 70,554 75,897 76,568 73,080 74,799 83,856 97,190 966,353 Shaping Put 8.272 7,760 8,272 8.032 8,272 8,000 8,272 8,272 8,000 8,304 7,968 7,968 97,392 Shaping Call 8,920 8,362 8,928 8.032 5,776 5,600 5,776 5,776 5,600 5,712 6,336 8,928 83,744 Scheduling 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,614 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,514 6.514 6,514 78,167 Bulk Power Cost 1,132,117 1,019,293 1,020,895 881,493 846,031 837.969 931,242 927.240 853,378 909,447 992,772 1,164,557 11,516,434 Total Costs By Vendor Total Energy Supply 1,031,563 921,229 928,655 800,654 770,749 760,901 848,831 844,158 773,784 828,134 902,403 1,060,853 10.471,916 536 Transmission-SPPCo. 94,040 91,551 85,726 74,325 68,768 70,554 75.897 76.568 73,080 74,799 83,856 97.190 966,353 534 Scheduling-NCPA 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,514 6.514 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,514 6,514 78,167 531 TOW Bulk Power Costs 4.132,117 1,019,293 1,020,895 881,493 846,031 837,969 931,242 927240 853,378 909,447 992,772 1,164,557 41,516,434 Total Delivered Cost$/MWH $73.20 $7352 $74.01 $73,40 $73.10 $7351 $73,19 $73,25 $7349 $73.43 $73.43 $7325 $73,41 Block Purchase Price $66,00 Woo $65,00 $6492 $66.00 $6500 $65,00 $66,00 565.00 $65,00 $65,00 $6500 564.99 Incremental Purchase Price $79,09 $83,67 $82.56 $67.52 $63.35 $6755 $85.35 $8678 $77d8 $72,11 $77,84 $7135 $7588 Surplus Sales Prim 56556 $67.29 $6560 $55.50 $53.45 $5086 $65.02 $66,26 $6226 $55,12 $60.92 $59.69 $61.40 (1)Actual Data 711/2004 through 6I3012005 grossed up by 2%. Air' lY,l�� 'fr�h YYI �� • ! ik Y • e d l I Purchased Power Summary and Expectations • Our contract through 2007 gives protection against a volatile market. • Possible Power from the Washoe Project in the future (WAPA Generation on Stampede Dam) • 2008 thru 2011 — When to lock in a price , who's crystal ball do we use? • Market Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8