HomeMy WebLinkAbout16 2016 Purchase Power Load and Budget ForecastAgenda Item #16
To: Board of Directors
From: Stephen Hollabaugh
Date: March 1, 2017
Subject: Discussion of 2016 Purchase Power Load, Resources, Peaks,
and Comparison to 2016 Budget Forecast
1. WHY THIS MATTER IS BEFORE THE BOARD
This workshop is to review the District's actual versus budgeted purchase power costs and
energy consumption for 2016.
2. HISTORY
On September 16, 2015 the workshop "FY16 and FY17 Budget: Purchase Power Plan" was
presented to the Board. This workshop covered the following topics:
Mission Statement and Objectives, Renewable Portfolio Standard Target, Conservation as First
Resource, Diversified Power Supply Plan, Future Renewable Resources, CARB Cap and Trade,
Proposed Resources for 2016 & 2017, Risk to Budget Analysis and 2016 & 2017 Forecast Costs.
The Purchase Power Plan 2016 and 2017 Budget was approved by the Board on November 18,
2015. The 2016 Purchase Power Plan budgeted amounts, based on a forecasted energy
purchase of 163,778 MWh, are shown in the following table:
Cost Component Budget $per MWh
Total Energy Supply -Various $11,200,896 $68.39
Transmission Wheeling - SPPC $ 927,156 $ 5.66
Totals $12,5955115 $74.05
Historical data for 2016 and prior years to 2006 is included for reference on Attachment A.
3. NEW INFORMATION
Summary budgeted versus actual amounts for 2016 are shown in the following table:
Description Budget Actual
Total Energy Purchases $12,128,052 $11,697,981
Total Energy Consumption, MWh 1631778 1611084
Purchase Cost per MWh $74.05 $72.62
• The total purchased power costs were 3.5% less than budgeted and total energy
consumption was about 1.6% less than forecasted during 2016. The two major factors that
affect the total purchased power cost are resource cost and energy consumption by our
customers.
All these factors helped to reduce the District's actual purchased energy cost to $72.62 per MWh,
about 1.9% under budget. Energy costs and consumption by month are graphically depicted
below.
Budgeted versus actual power
$13,000,000
$12,000,000
$11,000,000
$10,000,000
$9,000,000
$8,000,000
$7,000,000
$6,000,000
$5,000,000
rchase cost for 2016 is shown in graph below:
Budget Actual
_ Misc Costs:
Transmission
■ Total Energy Supply
Budgeted versus actual monthly MWh consumption for 2016 is shown in graph below:
1 111
111
111 '
The Monthly Peak MW for 2008 through 2016 is shown in the graph below:
Monthly •-
ak MW
11: thru 2016
0*
1 2016
3080 2015
1 4 1
20.0 w,
g r0 2012
080
w w s 1 1
Peak MW
1 5 0 Peak MW
r -E 2008 Peak MW
1 1
OCTJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT •
The District experienced its 2016 peak load of 37.2 MW in January. The summer months have
a constant load with a small peak in July.
History of Actual vs. Budget vs. Sales (MWh)
Total Bulk Power
Actual vs Budget vs Sales MWh
170,000
165,000
160,000
155,000
} 150,1000
s 145,000 ♦Actual MWh
5; 140,000 Budget MWh
135,000 0 sales MWh
130,000
125,000 0 °
120,000
Annual Graph of Resources used for 2016
2016 RESOURCE MIX
T Heat Recovery, 5%
Small Hydro, 6%
Landfill Gas, 15%
Unspecified Pool,
38%
Wind, 28%
1, "
Natural Gas, 8%
Resources (MWh) by Year 2014 — 2025
Resources (MWh) By Year 2014 - 2025
with Veyo Heat Recovery 2017 &
2017-2022 Market Purchase
180,000
160,000
140,000
120, 000
60,000
40,000
20,000
,y0 ,LO ,LO ,LO ,y0 ,LO ,LO ,LO ,LO ,yO ,LO ,LO
■ Natural Gas
® U
nspecified Pool
Heat Recovery
Small Hydro
■ Landfill Gas
■Wind
Open Position -DAMPS Pool /Mkt
Veyo Heat Recovery 2017
se Butte Wind -Wind
Hor
Nebo Power Plant -Natural Gas
■ Pleasant Valley -Wind
■ Fallon Exchange for Stampede
■ Stampede - Small Hydro
Trans Jordan - Land Fill Gas
■ Five-year Market 2017-22 (New)
■ Five-year Market 2012-17 (Exist)
On December 7, 2011 the Board approved the Renewable Energy Resources Procurement Plan
per Senate bill U2. This plan defines the minimum required percentage of renewables per
compliance period based on total retail energy sales. Compliance periods and percent
renewables are as follows:
Period 1 - January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2013 - 20%
Period 2 - January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2016 - 25%
Period 3 - January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2020 - 33%
Section 3201 (bb) of the CEC regulations define retail sales as: "Sale of electricity by a PUD to
end -use -customers and their tenants, measured in MWh. This does not include energy
consumption by a POU, electricity used by a POU for water pumping, or electricity produced for
onsite consumption (self -generation)." Therefore the retail sales for this calculation is equal to
151,527-7,021462=144,044 MWh
The District's estimated renewable energy portfolio performance for 2016 is shown in the table
below:
Eligible Renewables (CPUC
Small Hydro
Landfill Gas
Wind
Heat Recovery (w/REC's)
Totals
MWh REC's
2021
26,088
47,207
7,259
82,575
Sales
1.5%
18.1%
32.8%
5.0%
57.4 %
4. FISCAL IMPACT
Detailed budgeted versus actual amounts for 2016 are shown in the following table:
Summary 2016 Budget vs Actual
Power Purchases, MWh Budget Actual
Total Energy Purchase, MWh 163,778 165,866
Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget -1.6%
Power Purchase Costs
Total Energy Supply - UAMPS, WAPA, etc
Transmission - NV Energy
Scheduling - NCPA
WAPA cost/(credit)
Misc Costs: WECC, WREGIS, etc.
Budget
$11,200,896
$927,156
$0
$0
$0
Actual
,
$11,064744
$515,725
$0
$0
$40,492
Total Power Purchase Cost $ 12,128,052 $11,697,981
$ Over/(Under) Budget $ (430,070)
Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget -3.5%
Purchase Cost per MWh $74.05 $72.62
Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget -1.9%
Peak Load Information Budget Actual
District Peak Load, MW 36.0 37.2
Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget 3.4%
5. RECOMMENDAiI®N
Receive and comment on this report.
Stephen Hollabaugh
Assistant General Manager
Michael ®. Holley
General Manager