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HomeMy WebLinkAbout17 Workshop of FY19 Purchase Power Load & Budget ForecastAgendaItem#17frtRUCKEEDONNER!::PublicUtilityDistrictIWORKSHOPTo:From:Date:BoardofDirectorsJoeHorvathMarch04,2020Subject:DiscussionofFY19PurchasePowerLoad,Resources,Peaks,and____ComparisontoFY19BudgetForecast1.WHYTHISMATTERISBEFORETHEBOARDThisworkshopitemprovidestheBoardwithareviewoftheDistrict’sactualversusbudgetedpurchasepowercostsandenergyconsumptionforFY19.2.HISTORYonOctober4,2017,aworkshopwaspresentedtotheBoardtodiscusstheDistrict’sproposedPurchasePowerandResourcePlanaspartoftheproposedFY18andFY19budget.Thisworkshopcoveredthefollowingtopics:renewableportfoliostandardtargets;conservationasfirstresource;diversifiedpowersupplyplan;futurerenewableresources;CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard(CARB)CapandTradeprogram;andproposedresourcesandforecastcostsforFY18andFY19.TheFYi8andFYi9PurchasePowerandResourcePlanwasapprovedbytheBoardonNovember15,2017.TheFY19PurchasePowerPlanbudgetedamounts,basedonaforecastedenergypurchaseof166,911MWh,areshowninthefollowingtable.CostItemTotalEnergySupply-VariousTransmissionWheeling-NVEnergyBudget$11,947,467$990,057$12,937,523$perMWh$71.58$5.93$77.513.NEWINFORMATIONSummarybudgetedversusactualamountsforFY19areshowninthefollowingtable.TheDistrict’stotalenergyconsumptionwas2.1%less,andpurchasedpowercostswerealmost16%lessthanbudgetedduringFYi9.ThetwomajorfactorsthataffectDescriptionBudgetActual%ChangeTotalEnergyPurchases$12,937,523$10,896,172-15.8%TotalEnergyConsumption,MWh166,911163,467-2.1%PurchasePowerCostperMWh$77.51$66.66-14.0% metotalpurcnasedpowercostareenergyconsumptionyourcustomersandresourcecosts.A2.1%reductioninenergyusage,byitself,shouldequatetoacorrespondingbutapproximate2.1%reductioninpurchasepowercosts.However,severalotherfactorscontributedtoreducetotalpurchasepowercosts.TheDistrictisawinterpeakingutility,butalmostallotherUAMPSmembersaresummerpeaking.UAMPSresourcesandthememberPoolperformedbetterthanbudget.Inaddition,UAMPSperformedbetterthanbudgetedacrossallprojectsduetotimelymarkettransactionsandconservativefinancialpracticesonbehalfofallmembers.TheDistrict’sportionwascreditedagainstourpurchasepowercosts.AllthesefactorshelpedreducetheDistrict’sactualpurchasedenergycostto$67perMWh,about14%underbudget.EnergycostsandconsumptionbymonthforFY19aregraphicallydepictedinthegraphsincludedinAttachment1:.Budgetedvs.ActualPowerPurchaseCost,2019;.Budgetedvs.ActualMWhConsumptionbyMonth,2019;.PeakLoadinMWbyMonth,2009-2019;.Budgetedvs.ActualPowerSales,2003-2019;.ResourceMixbyPercentages,2019;and.ResourceMixinMWhPurchases,2014-2030.Historicalenergyusagedatafortheyears2005through2019aredepictedinthetablesincludedinAttachment2:.EnergyPurchaseswithTransmissionSystemLosses;.Actualvs.BudgetedEnergyPurchases;.EnergySalestoCustomers;and.DistributionSystemLosses.RenewablePortfolioStandard(RPS)OnOctober2,2013,theBoardapprovedtheRenewableEnergyResourcesProcurementPlan(Plan)pertherequirementsofSenateBillXl-2(2011).ThisPlandefinestheminimumrequiredpercentageofrenewableenergyresourcescomparedtoretailsalesperthree-yearcomplianceperiodtotheendof2020.OtherlegislationhasincreasedtheRPSrequirementsandextendedthecomplianceperiodstotheendof2030.In2015,SB350wassignedintolaw,whichmandateda50%RPSbyDecember31,2030.In2018,SB100wassignedintolaw,whichagainincreasestheRPSto60%by2030andrequiresallstate’selectricitytocomefromcarbon-freeresourcesby2045.ComplianceperiodsandRPSrequirementsareasfollows:Period1-January1,2011throughDecember31,2013-20%RPS;Period2-January1,2014throughDecember31,2016-25%RPS;Period3-January1,2017throughDecember31,2020-33%RPS;Period4-January1,2021throughDecember31,2024-44%RPS;Period5-January1,2025throughDecember31,2027-50%RPS;andPeriod6-January1,2028throughDecember31,2030-60%RPS.TheRPSamountisbasedontheDistrict’stotalretailenergysales,asdefinedbythe CaliforniaEnergyCommission(CEC).Section3201(bb)ofCECregulationsdefineretailenergysalesas:“SaleofelectricitybyaPOUtoend-use-customersandtheirtenants,measuredinMWh.ThisdoesnotincludeenergyconsumptionbyaPOU,electricityusedbyaPOUforwaterpumping,orelectricityproducedforonsiteconsumption(self-generation).”TheretailenergysalescalculationfortheDistrictaccordingtothisdefinitionisshowninthefollowingtable.RetailSalesperCECMWhRetailSalestoCustomers156,714WaterPumping-6,908OtherDistrictUsage2019RetailSalesforRPS-537149,269TheDistricthasadiverseportfolioofrenewableresourcesincludinghydroelectric,landfillgas,wind,andheatrecoverygeneration.Mostoftheseresourcesincluderenewableenergycredits(RECs)thataretransferredtotheDistrictinaccordancewiththeenergygenerated.However,severalresourcesincludingStampedehydroelectric,TCIDhydroelectric,andVeyoheatrecoveryprojectscomewithapartialamountofRECs,ornoRECsatall.SincetheseareRPSeligibleand/orcarbonfreeresources,theDistrictpurchasedadditionalRECstosupplywhatwaslackingfromtheseresources.Theseresourcesactuallygeneratedabout25,622MWhin2019.TheDistrict’sestimatedrenewableenergyportfolioperformancefor2019isshowninthetablebelow.HeatRecovery(Veyo,carbon-free,w/oRECs)UnbundledRECs(SmallHydro&HeatRecovery)2019EstimatedRPSRPSRequirementTheDistrict’sfinalRPSvalueforFYi9willbeknownonlyafterfinalenergyandRECinformationforDistrictresourcesbecomesavailableinQ2,2020.ThefinalRPSvalueistypically2-3%greaterthantheestimatedvalueabove.ThesmallchangeinRPSfromyeartoyearisduetothevariabilityofrenewableresourcegeneration.CaliforniaAirResourcesBoard(CARB)CapandTradeProgramCARBstartedtheirCapandTradeauctionsin2013.Section95892(d)(3)oftheregulationstatesthefollowing:“Auctionproceedsandallowancevalueobtainedbytheelectricdistributionutilityshallbeusedexclusivelyforthebenefitoftheretailratepayersofeachdistributionutility,consistentwiththegoalsofAB32,andmaynotbeusedforthebenefitofentitiesorpersonsotherthansuchratepayers.”TheBoarddecidedtousetheauctionproceedstooffsetthecostoftheDistrict’srenewableenergyresources,thereforemeetingthegoalsofAB32.Fourauctionswereheldin2019,withresultsasshownbelow.EligibleRenewablesandCarbon-FreeMWhRECs%RetailSalesHydroelectric(Stampede)6,1304.1%LandfillGas(Transjordan)23,07315.5%Wind(HorseButte,PleasantValley)41,75428.0%00.0%19,55913.1%60.7%33.0% SettlementRevenuetoInFY20,$1,400,00hasbeenconservativelybudgetedasrevenuetohelppayforrenewableresources.4.FISCALIMPACTSummarybudgetedversusactualcostsforFYi9areshowninthefollowingtable.Summary2019BudgetvsActualPowerPurchases,MWhDistrictPeakLoad,MWPercentDifference,Actualvs.Budget5.RECOMMENDATION39.034.3-12.1%Reviewreportandprovidecommentstostaff.JoeHorvathfrzMichaelD.Holley2019CapandTradeAuctionsPriceDistrictAuction18,February2019$15.73$346,060Auction19,May2019$17.45$383,900Auction20,August2019$17.16$377,520Auction21,November2019$17.00$396,015$1,503,495BudgetActualTotalEnergyPurchase,MWh166,911163,467PercentDifference,Actualvs.Budget-2.1%PowerPurchaseCostsBudgetActualTotalEnergySupply-UAMPS,WAPA,etc$11,947,467$10,037,133Transmission-NVEnergy$990,057$1,160,001MiscCosts:WECC,WREGIS,etc.$16,453UAMPSOperatingMargin$0($317,414)TotalPowerPurchaseCost$12,937,523$10,896,172$Over/(Under)Budget($2,041,352)PercentDifference,Actualvs.Budget-15.8%PurchaseCostperMWh$77.51$66.66PercentDifference,Actualvs.Budget-14.0%PeakLoadInformationBudgetActualElectricUtilityDirectorGeneralManager AttachmentIDiscussionofFY19PurchasePowerLoad,Resources,Peaks,andComparisontoFY19BudgetForecastFY19PowerPurchaseCost$14,000,000—--$13,000,000—“$12,000,000--———$10,896,172$11,000,000—-—.SMiscCosts:$10,000,000L.aTransmission$9,000,000——STotalEnergySupply$8,000,000•.$7,000,000$6,000,000[——$5,000,000-•-______J-BudgetActual20,00018,00016,00014,000Mw12,000hio,ooo8,0006,0004,0002,0002019MonthlyEnergyConsumption(MWh).Budget.ActualIIIII._.1111111111111IIIIIIIIitIIIIII1111IIIIIIIII1111I‘‘‘‘Ii’’’’’11111111iII0JANMARMAYJULYSEPTNOVPage1 (o‘,c,Cd16q000toztooo’czt000’OEt000’SEI000’0171000’S171:000toct000’cc’000’091000’S91000’OLIeaOIOZIIEdtIOZedZtOS>IeadEIOZS)IEaUI7IOZS•)IeadSIOZS)1d9tOZSEdLIOZeautoz)Iead610ZiiIIIIsales—.—apnlflPV(LIMIAI)saesi:iapniSi’IflPVJMOdie:ioiAONIDOId3SDflVAlflt3NfltAVLAJNdVNVLAJ3JNW0•0o.c0•01o.c’o.oo.cOOEO•SEo.ov610Zniq:ioioz(MLAJ))ld 2019RESOURCEMIXHeatRecovery5%SmallHydroI-17%I—LandfillGas16%NaturalGasRNaturalGasSUnspecifiedPoolSHeatRecoverySSmallHydro.LandfillGasmWindWindI—29%Resources(MWh)ByYear2014-2030160,000140,000120,000100,00080,00060,000200,000——---aOpenPositionUAMPSPool!Mkt180,000----——,——————--VeyoHeatRecovery2017HorseButteWind-WindNeboPowerPlant-NaturalGasNTUAKayentaIll-SolarUPleasantValley-WindaFallonExchangeforStampedeaStampede-SmallHydroSTransJordan-LandFillGasITCIDSmallHydroaFive-yearMarket2017-22IFive-yearMarket2012-1740,00020,0000‘%cb°‘-i’“tx(0q,0)V;Page3 Attachment2SummaryHistoricalEnergyUsageData2005through2019EnergyPurchases-MWhDeliveredtoTransmissionTotalBulkEnergyYearSubstationsSystemLosses(1)Purchased2005142,8523,767146,6192006153,2104,018157,2282007154,3424,042158,3842008156,1134,076160,1892009153,6774,018157,6952010154,4834,011158,4942011156,4074,137160,5442012150,9963,980154,9762013154,2803,870158,1492014154,8743,372158,2452015149,6012,609152,2102016158,32427760161,0842017161,5172,807164,3242018158,7902,758161,5482019160,6832,784163,467Actualvs.BudgetedEnergyPurchases-MWhYearActualBudget%Difference2005146,619145,3820.9%2006157,228150,1684.7%2007158,384156,96309%2008160,189161,604-0.9%2009157,695163,220-3.4%2010158,494160,000-0.9%2011160,544162,000-0.9%2012154,976162,000-4.3%2013158,149163,082-3.0%2014158,245164,713-3.9%2015152,210164,729-7.6%2016161,084163,778-1.6%2017164,324163,4210.6%AverageDifference2018161,548165,095-2.1%over15Years2019163,467166,911-2.1%+1-2.5%Pagelof2 Attachment2SummaryHistoricalEnergyUsageData2005through2019EnergySalestoCustomers-MWhChangefromPreviousYearEnergySales,MWhYear,%2005136,3392006144,2695.8%2007147,0912.0%2008148,3050.8%2009146,875-1.0%2010147,6470.5%2011149,9781.6%2012146,014-2.6%2013147,3890.9%2014142,584-3.3%2015140,819-1.2%2016151,5277.6%2017156,5623.3%AverageChange2018151,944-2.9%overl5Years2019156,7143.1%+/-2.6%DistributionSystemLosses-MWhDeliveredtoLossesasa%EnergyYearLosses(2)SubstationsDeliveredtoSubs20056,513142,8524.6%20068,941153,2105.8%20077,251154,3424.7%20087,808156,1135.0%20096,802153,6774.4%20106,836154,4834.4%20116,429156,4074.1%20124,982150,9963.3%20136,891154,2804.5%201412,290154,8747.9%20158,782149,6015.9%20166,797158,3244.3%20174,955161,5173.1%AverageLosses20186,846158,7904.3%over15Years20193,969160,6832.5%4.6%Notes:1TransmissionSystemLosses:ThisistheamountofMWhthatNVEnergyrequirestheDistricttopaybytariffasaloss.ThisisdefinedasafixedpercentageofMWhDeliveredtotheDistrict2DistributionSystemLosses:ThisisthedifferencebetweenenergydeliveredtooursubstationsandwhatissoldtoDistrictcustomers.Historicallythisvaluehasbeenbetween4%and7%.Page2of2