HomeMy WebLinkAbout10 Attachment 6 Financial Master PlanAttachment 6
* Customer Growth -
Electric - 2022 & 2023 0.5%, thereafter 1.0% per year
Water - 2022 & 2023 0.5%, thereafter 0.8% per year
[2015 to 2020 Growth Rate - Electric 1.2% Water 0.8%]
* Purchased Power - 3% increase for inflation + 1.0% for customer growth impact; 4.0% Total / year
* All Other Costs -
Electric - 2022 as detail planned, 2023 as detail planned, thereafter 3.5% per year inflation
Water - 2022 as detail planned, 2023 as detail planned, thereafter 3.5% per year inflation
* Capital Expenditures - refer to Attachment 3, Capital Expenditure 10 year Plan, Electric and Water
* New Debt - Electric $6M Water $15M; both bond issuances in 2022
Pension Obligation Bonds not in current Budget/FMP draft - POB's estimated to have small net impact on cash flow
* In 2022 the rate funded water debt will be cut in half due to the refunding portion of the former
2006 COP debt and the Prop 55 water system improvement debt will be paid off
* Interest earned projected at 0.30%'22, 0.50%'23, gradually increasing to 1.0% in 2027 and thereafter
* AB32 cap and trade auction proceeds are projected to fall from approxamately $1.4m per year in 2020
to $750,000 in 2021, and stabilize at $350,000 thereafter
Truckee Donner Public Utility District
Financial Master Plan Summary - Assumptions
FY22 through FY31
TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021)
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TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021)
Financial Master Plan Summary
ELECTRIC
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Rate Change 8.5%6.5%5.0%5.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Total Reserves Balance 21,046$20,950$20,042$22,127$23,376$25,657$31,198$34,298$37,337$40,079$
Total Reseres % to Goal 95%92%85%90%92%98%115%122%129%134%
Rate Change 6.5%6.5%6.5%5.5%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Total Reserves Balance 20,491$19,789$18,725$20,817$22,072$24,357$29,901$33,006$36,052$38,798$
Total Reseres % to Goal 92%87%79%85%87%93%110%118%124%129%
Rate Change 8.5%8.5%4.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Total Reserves Balance 21,046$21,565$20,974$23,041$24,274$26,539$32,063$35,147$38,167$40,890$
Total Reseres % to Goal 95%94%89%94%96%101%118%125%132%136%
1st four years rate change total 25% in all three above, latter six years the same in all four.
Operating & Rate Reserve are prioritized over Capital Reserve. See following pages for details.
($ in thousands)
RECOMMENDED
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Electric Projected Cash & Reserve Balance
Goal RECOMMENDED Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Green Shading - Reserves at or above Target
Yellow Shades - Caution, Reserves below Target
Pink Shades - High Caution, Reserves well below Target
$Dollars in Green - Positive/Favorable Amount
$Dollars in Red - Negative/Unfavorable Amount
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TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021)
Financial Master Plan Summary
ELECTRIC
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Rate Change 8.5%6.5%5.0%5.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Change in Operating Cash $669 $49 $291 $252 $241 $289 $1,843 $2,200 $2,418 $2,319
Total Reserves Balance 21,046$20,950$20,042$22,127$23,376$25,657$31,198$34,298$37,337$40,079$
Total Reseres % to Goal 95%92%85%90%92%98%115%122%129%134%
OP/RR Reserve %50%50%50%50%50%50%55%60%66%71%
$ + (-) to Goal $85 $31 $80 $81 $64 $86 $1,650 $3,562 $5,683 $7,694
Capital Reserve %77%66%41%66%72%89%127%128%125%120%
$ + (-) to Goal ($1,542)($2,313)($4,140)($2,455)($2,116)($825)$2,147 $2,293 $2,130 $1,740
-Operating Cash Flow is positive all years, this is a good thing
-Total Reserve Balance - 90%+ to Goal all years except for 2024 at 85%. 1st 4 years rate% change total 25%.
-Operating/Rate (OP/RR) Reserve is at or above policy target in all years
-Capital Reserve falls to a low of 41%, with policy Target of 100% achieved starting in 2028
($ in thousands)
RECOMMENDED
R
E
C
O
M
M
E
N
D
E
D
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
$22,000
$24,000
$26,000
$28,000
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Electric Projected Cash & Reserve Balance
Cash & Reserve Balances Goal
Green Shading - Reserves at or above Target
Yellow Shades - Caution, Reserves below Target
Pink Shades - High Caution, Reserves well below Target
$Dollars in Green - Positive/Favorable Amount
$Dollars in Red - Negative/Unfavorable Amount
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TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021)
Financial Master Plan Summary
ELECTRIC
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Rate Change 6.5%6.5%6.5%5.5%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Change in Operating Cash $614 $145 $241 $268 $257 $306 $1,860 $2,219 $2,437 $2,338
Total Reserves Balance 20,491$19,789$18,725$20,817$22,072$24,357$29,901$33,006$36,052$38,798$
Total Reseres % to Goal 92%87%79%85%87%93%110%118%124%129%
OP/RR Reserve %50%50%50%50%50%50%55%60%66%71%
$ + (-) to Goal $30 $72 $71 $88 $87 $126 $1,707 $3,638 $5,778 $7,808
Capital Reserve %69%49%23%48%54%72%110%111%109%104%
$ + (-) to Goal ($2,042)($3,515)($5,448)($3,772)($3,443)($2,165)$793 $925 $750 $345
-Operating Cash Flow is positive all years, by adjusting Capital Reserve utilization/funding by year, to prioritze Op.Reseve
-Total Reserve Balance - below policy target through 2027. 1st 4 years rate% change total 25%.
-Operating/Rate (OP/RR) Reserve is at or above policy target in all years, by prioritizing over Capital Reserve
-Capital Reserve falls to a low of 23%, with policy Target of 100% achieved starting in 2028
($ in thousands)
Scenario 1
S
c
e
n
a
r
i
o
1
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
$22,000
$24,000
$26,000
$28,000
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Electric Projected Cash & Reserve Balance
Cash & Reserve Balances Goal
Green Shading - Reserves at or above Target
Yellow Shades - Caution, Reserves below Target
Pink Shades - High Caution, Reserves well below Target
$Dollars in Green - Positive/Favorable Amount
$Dollars in Red - Negative/Unfavorable Amount
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TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021)
Financial Master Plan Summary
ELECTRIC
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Rate Change 8.5%8.5%4.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
Change in Operating Cash $669 $64 $205 $328 $217 $264 $1,817 $2,174 $2,390 $2,290
Total Reserves Balance 21,046$21,565$20,974$23,041$24,274$26,539$32,063$35,147$38,167$40,890$
Total Reseres % to Goal 95%94%89%94%96%101%118%125%132%136%
OP/RR Reserve %50%50%50%50%50%50%55%60%65%70%
$ + (-) to Goal $85 $46 $9 $86 $45 $42 $1,580 $3,467 $5,559 $7,541
Capital Reserve %77%75%55%79%84%101%139%140%137%131%
$ + (-) to Goal ($1,542)($1,713)($3,137)($1,546)($1,199)$101 $3,082 $3,237 $3,084 $2,704
-Operating Cash Flow is positive all years, by adjusting Capital Reserve utilization/funding by year, to prioritze Op.Reseve
-Total Reserve Balance - below policy target through 2026. 1st 4 years rate% change total 25%.
-Operating/Rate (OP/RR) Reserve is at or above policy target in all years, by prioritizing over Capital Reserve
-Capital Reserve falls to a low of 55%, with policy Target of 100% achieved starting in 2027
($ in thousands)
SCENARIO 2
S
C
E
N
A
R
I
O
2
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
$22,000
$24,000
$26,000
$28,000
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
$36,000
$38,000
$40,000
$42,000
$44,000
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Electric Projected Cash & Reserve Balance
Cash & Reserve Balances Goal
Green Shading - Reserves at or above Target
Yellow Shades - Caution, Reserves below Target
Pink Shades - High Caution, Reserves well below Target
$Dollars in Green - Positive/Favorable Amount
$Dollars in Red - Negative/Unfavorable Amount
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Attachment 6
WATER
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Operating Cash Flow
Operating revenue 16,434$17,784$19,324$20,810$22,413$24,141$25,288$26,491$27,620$28,798$
Operating expenses (11,134)(11,579)(12,006)(12,448)(12,889)(13,329)(13,783)(14,254)(14,740)(15,243)
Other revenue and expenses (693)(956)(908)(856)(802)(741)(693)(647)(599)(548)
Net income 4,607$5,249$6,410$7,506$8,722$10,071$10,812$11,590$12,281$13,007$
Transfers from/(to) funds 963 2,326 (276)429 (1,023)608 (2,459)577 (2,202)(1,478)
Debt Issuance Costs (285)---------
Debt principal payments (846)(1,015)(1,055)(1,100)(1,140)(1,186)(1,233)(1,276)(1,324)(1,373)
Debt proceeds (new debt) - $14,755 5,789 8,966 --------
Capital expenditures (9,397)(15,277)(4,856)(6,707)(6,315)(9,358)(6,847)(10,747)(8,592)(9,929)
Change in Operating Cash 831$249$223$128$244$135$273$144$163$227$
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
OpGF Reserve% of OpExp Goal 50%50%50%50%49%50%49%49%49%48%48%
Capital Reserves % CapxGoal 100%14%2%11%10%28%25%57%54%81%99%
Cash & Reserve Balances
Operating Cash Balance (GenFd)5,539$5,788$6,011$6,139$6,383$6,518$6,790$6,935$7,098$7,325$
Capital Reserve Balance 920 (37)573 477 1,856 1,675 4,591 4,537 7,168 9,239
Vehicle Reserve Balance 110 207 280 358 415 415 382 314 329 202
Deferred Liability 107 107 108 108 108 109 109 109 110 110
Facility Fee Balance 2,427 1,543 1,522 1,501 1,484 1,486 1,506 1,543 1,602 1,683
Cash & Reserve Balances 9,103$7,608$8,494$8,583$10,246$10,203$13,378$13,438$16,307$18,559$
Debt service coverage 4.47 3.43 3.93 4.45 5.05 5.71 6.07 6.45 6.78 7.13
(1.25 required until 2036)
Change to Proposed FY22 & FY23 0.0%0.0%
Proposed rate change 8.9%7.9%8.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%4.0%4.0%3.50%3.50%
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021)
Financial Master Plan Summary
FY22 through FY31
(in thousands)
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Attachment 6TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021)
Financial Master Plan Summary
FY22 through FY31
(in thousands)
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31
Water Projected Cash & Reserve Balance
Cash & Reserve Balances Goal
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