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HomeMy WebLinkAbout10 Attachment 6 Financial Master PlanAttachment 6 * Customer Growth - Electric - 2022 & 2023 0.5%, thereafter 1.0% per year Water - 2022 & 2023 0.5%, thereafter 0.8% per year [2015 to 2020 Growth Rate - Electric 1.2% Water 0.8%] * Purchased Power - 3% increase for inflation + 1.0% for customer growth impact; 4.0% Total / year * All Other Costs - Electric - 2022 as detail planned, 2023 as detail planned, thereafter 3.5% per year inflation Water - 2022 as detail planned, 2023 as detail planned, thereafter 3.5% per year inflation * Capital Expenditures - refer to Attachment 3, Capital Expenditure 10 year Plan, Electric and Water * New Debt - Electric $6M Water $15M; both bond issuances in 2022 Pension Obligation Bonds not in current Budget/FMP draft - POB's estimated to have small net impact on cash flow * In 2022 the rate funded water debt will be cut in half due to the refunding portion of the former 2006 COP debt and the Prop 55 water system improvement debt will be paid off * Interest earned projected at 0.30%'22, 0.50%'23, gradually increasing to 1.0% in 2027 and thereafter * AB32 cap and trade auction proceeds are projected to fall from approxamately $1.4m per year in 2020 to $750,000 in 2021, and stabilize at $350,000 thereafter Truckee Donner Public Utility District Financial Master Plan Summary - Assumptions FY22 through FY31 TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021) 10/28/2021 8:44 AM I:\BUDGET\CYB\Central\Financial Master Plan Assumptions 8A6 FMP - Page 1 of 7 TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021) Financial Master Plan Summary ELECTRIC FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Rate Change 8.5%6.5%5.0%5.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Total Reserves Balance 21,046$20,950$20,042$22,127$23,376$25,657$31,198$34,298$37,337$40,079$ Total Reseres % to Goal 95%92%85%90%92%98%115%122%129%134% Rate Change 6.5%6.5%6.5%5.5%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Total Reserves Balance 20,491$19,789$18,725$20,817$22,072$24,357$29,901$33,006$36,052$38,798$ Total Reseres % to Goal 92%87%79%85%87%93%110%118%124%129% Rate Change 8.5%8.5%4.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Total Reserves Balance 21,046$21,565$20,974$23,041$24,274$26,539$32,063$35,147$38,167$40,890$ Total Reseres % to Goal 95%94%89%94%96%101%118%125%132%136% 1st four years rate change total 25% in all three above, latter six years the same in all four. Operating & Rate Reserve are prioritized over Capital Reserve. See following pages for details. ($ in thousands) RECOMMENDED Scenario 1 Scenario 2 $- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Electric Projected Cash & Reserve Balance Goal RECOMMENDED Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Green Shading - Reserves at or above Target Yellow Shades - Caution, Reserves below Target Pink Shades - High Caution, Reserves well below Target $Dollars in Green - Positive/Favorable Amount $Dollars in Red - Negative/Unfavorable Amount 10/28/2021 8:44 AM I:\BUDGET\CYB\Central\Financial Master Plan E S Chart 8A6 FMP - Page 2 of 7 TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021) Financial Master Plan Summary ELECTRIC FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Rate Change 8.5%6.5%5.0%5.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Change in Operating Cash $669 $49 $291 $252 $241 $289 $1,843 $2,200 $2,418 $2,319 Total Reserves Balance 21,046$20,950$20,042$22,127$23,376$25,657$31,198$34,298$37,337$40,079$ Total Reseres % to Goal 95%92%85%90%92%98%115%122%129%134% OP/RR Reserve %50%50%50%50%50%50%55%60%66%71% $ + (-) to Goal $85 $31 $80 $81 $64 $86 $1,650 $3,562 $5,683 $7,694 Capital Reserve %77%66%41%66%72%89%127%128%125%120% $ + (-) to Goal ($1,542)($2,313)($4,140)($2,455)($2,116)($825)$2,147 $2,293 $2,130 $1,740 -Operating Cash Flow is positive all years, this is a good thing -Total Reserve Balance - 90%+ to Goal all years except for 2024 at 85%. 1st 4 years rate% change total 25%. -Operating/Rate (OP/RR) Reserve is at or above policy target in all years -Capital Reserve falls to a low of 41%, with policy Target of 100% achieved starting in 2028 ($ in thousands) RECOMMENDED R E C O M M E N D E D $- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,000 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Electric Projected Cash & Reserve Balance Cash & Reserve Balances Goal Green Shading - Reserves at or above Target Yellow Shades - Caution, Reserves below Target Pink Shades - High Caution, Reserves well below Target $Dollars in Green - Positive/Favorable Amount $Dollars in Red - Negative/Unfavorable Amount 10/28/2021 8:44 AM I:\BUDGET\CYB\Central\Financial Master Plan E S R (V) 8A6 FMP - Page 3 of 7 TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021) Financial Master Plan Summary ELECTRIC FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Rate Change 6.5%6.5%6.5%5.5%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Change in Operating Cash $614 $145 $241 $268 $257 $306 $1,860 $2,219 $2,437 $2,338 Total Reserves Balance 20,491$19,789$18,725$20,817$22,072$24,357$29,901$33,006$36,052$38,798$ Total Reseres % to Goal 92%87%79%85%87%93%110%118%124%129% OP/RR Reserve %50%50%50%50%50%50%55%60%66%71% $ + (-) to Goal $30 $72 $71 $88 $87 $126 $1,707 $3,638 $5,778 $7,808 Capital Reserve %69%49%23%48%54%72%110%111%109%104% $ + (-) to Goal ($2,042)($3,515)($5,448)($3,772)($3,443)($2,165)$793 $925 $750 $345 -Operating Cash Flow is positive all years, by adjusting Capital Reserve utilization/funding by year, to prioritze Op.Reseve -Total Reserve Balance - below policy target through 2027. 1st 4 years rate% change total 25%. -Operating/Rate (OP/RR) Reserve is at or above policy target in all years, by prioritizing over Capital Reserve -Capital Reserve falls to a low of 23%, with policy Target of 100% achieved starting in 2028 ($ in thousands) Scenario 1 S c e n a r i o 1 $- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,000 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Electric Projected Cash & Reserve Balance Cash & Reserve Balances Goal Green Shading - Reserves at or above Target Yellow Shades - Caution, Reserves below Target Pink Shades - High Caution, Reserves well below Target $Dollars in Green - Positive/Favorable Amount $Dollars in Red - Negative/Unfavorable Amount 10/28/2021 8:44 AM I:\BUDGET\CYB\Central\Financial Master Plan E S S1 (V) 8A6 FMP - Page 4 of 7 TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021) Financial Master Plan Summary ELECTRIC FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Rate Change 8.5%8.5%4.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0% Change in Operating Cash $669 $64 $205 $328 $217 $264 $1,817 $2,174 $2,390 $2,290 Total Reserves Balance 21,046$21,565$20,974$23,041$24,274$26,539$32,063$35,147$38,167$40,890$ Total Reseres % to Goal 95%94%89%94%96%101%118%125%132%136% OP/RR Reserve %50%50%50%50%50%50%55%60%65%70% $ + (-) to Goal $85 $46 $9 $86 $45 $42 $1,580 $3,467 $5,559 $7,541 Capital Reserve %77%75%55%79%84%101%139%140%137%131% $ + (-) to Goal ($1,542)($1,713)($3,137)($1,546)($1,199)$101 $3,082 $3,237 $3,084 $2,704 -Operating Cash Flow is positive all years, by adjusting Capital Reserve utilization/funding by year, to prioritze Op.Reseve -Total Reserve Balance - below policy target through 2026. 1st 4 years rate% change total 25%. -Operating/Rate (OP/RR) Reserve is at or above policy target in all years, by prioritizing over Capital Reserve -Capital Reserve falls to a low of 55%, with policy Target of 100% achieved starting in 2027 ($ in thousands) SCENARIO 2 S C E N A R I O 2 $- $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 $32,000 $34,000 $36,000 $38,000 $40,000 $42,000 $44,000 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Electric Projected Cash & Reserve Balance Cash & Reserve Balances Goal Green Shading - Reserves at or above Target Yellow Shades - Caution, Reserves below Target Pink Shades - High Caution, Reserves well below Target $Dollars in Green - Positive/Favorable Amount $Dollars in Red - Negative/Unfavorable Amount 10/28/2021 8:44 AM I:\BUDGET\CYB\Central\Financial Master Plan E S S2 (V) 8A6 FMP - Page 5 of 7 Attachment 6 WATER FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Operating Cash Flow Operating revenue 16,434$17,784$19,324$20,810$22,413$24,141$25,288$26,491$27,620$28,798$ Operating expenses (11,134)(11,579)(12,006)(12,448)(12,889)(13,329)(13,783)(14,254)(14,740)(15,243) Other revenue and expenses (693)(956)(908)(856)(802)(741)(693)(647)(599)(548) Net income 4,607$5,249$6,410$7,506$8,722$10,071$10,812$11,590$12,281$13,007$ Transfers from/(to) funds 963 2,326 (276)429 (1,023)608 (2,459)577 (2,202)(1,478) Debt Issuance Costs (285)--------- Debt principal payments (846)(1,015)(1,055)(1,100)(1,140)(1,186)(1,233)(1,276)(1,324)(1,373) Debt proceeds (new debt) - $14,755 5,789 8,966 -------- Capital expenditures (9,397)(15,277)(4,856)(6,707)(6,315)(9,358)(6,847)(10,747)(8,592)(9,929) Change in Operating Cash 831$249$223$128$244$135$273$144$163$227$ FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 OpGF Reserve% of OpExp Goal 50%50%50%50%49%50%49%49%49%48%48% Capital Reserves % CapxGoal 100%14%2%11%10%28%25%57%54%81%99% Cash & Reserve Balances Operating Cash Balance (GenFd)5,539$5,788$6,011$6,139$6,383$6,518$6,790$6,935$7,098$7,325$ Capital Reserve Balance 920 (37)573 477 1,856 1,675 4,591 4,537 7,168 9,239 Vehicle Reserve Balance 110 207 280 358 415 415 382 314 329 202 Deferred Liability 107 107 108 108 108 109 109 109 110 110 Facility Fee Balance 2,427 1,543 1,522 1,501 1,484 1,486 1,506 1,543 1,602 1,683 Cash & Reserve Balances 9,103$7,608$8,494$8,583$10,246$10,203$13,378$13,438$16,307$18,559$ Debt service coverage 4.47 3.43 3.93 4.45 5.05 5.71 6.07 6.45 6.78 7.13 (1.25 required until 2036) Change to Proposed FY22 & FY23 0.0%0.0% Proposed rate change 8.9%7.9%8.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%4.0%4.0%3.50%3.50% FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021) Financial Master Plan Summary FY22 through FY31 (in thousands) 10/28/2021 8:44 AM I:\BUDGET\CYB\Central\Financial Master Plan Water View1 8A6 FMP - Page 6 of 7 Attachment 6TDPUD Budget FY2022 and FY2023 (Draft 11/3/2021) Financial Master Plan Summary FY22 through FY31 (in thousands) $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 FY30 FY31 Water Projected Cash & Reserve Balance Cash & Reserve Balances Goal 10/28/2021 8:44 AM I:\BUDGET\CYB\Central\Financial Master Plan Water View1 8A6 FMP - Page 7 of 7