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HomeMy WebLinkAboutIntegrated Plan Truckee Donner PUD Integrated Resource Plan From a Renewable Portfolio Standard Perspective November 29th, 2006 District Board meeting i TDPUD Daily Load Shape 40,000 y a 35,000 \: 30,000 W \ L v ' 25,000ML a R 20,000 \a77, W E 15,000 M -- e 10,000 NY JW 6,000 o cv m v Lfi co ti oo a) o �v v u, t9 oo o N CN cmv W W W W W w W w W w w w w w W w w w w w w w w w _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Hoer of the Day --w—Max —, —Yearly Aveage ■ RPS 15°!o RPS 25% RPS 20% i If Integrated Resource Plan 2012 Resource Alternatives • Alternative 1 : RPS goal of 15% emission free • Alternative 2 : RPS goal of 25% emission free • Alternative 3 : RPS goal of 20% emission free • Alternative 4 : Market (similar to current contract) Alternative 1 : RIPS goal of 15 % emission free • Resources — Coal : 1 8MW 90% Capacity Factor — Wind : 4 MW 33% Capacity Factor — Market/ Natural Gas : 4 MW $7/mmBtu Gas at 8200 Heat Rate (Btu/kwh), 95% Capacity Factor — WAPA Allocation ( Hydro) 75% of wet year — Stampede (Small Hydro) Historical average (about 5500 MWh ) Truckee-Donner Energy Load & Resources 450,000 — Alternative 1 (RIPS 15%) . 400,000 ------ Energy Load (MWh) 350,000 I _ i 300,000 - - - - - - -- - -- -® - - p' IPP 3 0,0 i 250,000 E3" 0 o - - p. ". © p--3% Growth o 150,000 - -©-�2/o Growth 100,000 - M -*-No Growth 10 50,000 - +Energy 0 7 i� History O N et CD CO O CO CO O N CO CO CO CO O O O O O O N N N N N CM C`7 CO CO m I - O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N N N N N N CN N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Year 11/15/2006 Truckee-Donner Peak Load & Resources 60 3 Alternative 1 (RPS 15%) 5o Capacity MW - - - ' IPP 3 40 -_ - - -- - - - - .. ®_ 2% Growth ® _ 4 ® ® .. 0 0. p'0_ _ _.o 1% Growth i 20 717 No Growth Y' F U X Y ' - -Avg Monthly Peak o N CO � N � o N �r COO N v CO O History O O O O O N N N N N M M M cM M `af - O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N N N C14 N N N N N N N N N N N C'V N N N N N Year 11/15/2006 Truckee Donner Forecasted Load and Resources, April 2012 - March 2013 45,000 _, e e .e 40,000 m. a Im 01 35,000 L e L : 30,000 U Natural Gas 25,000 W i rr Stampede WAPA 20,000 wo Goal —Load 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Apr Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Month 11/21/2005 Truckee Donner Forecasted Average Load and Average Resources 30,000 - - - 25,000 +fi.. 20,000 7N C Natural Gas Sim,Poo O Stam pede 15,000 0 Wind Coal 10,000 - -Load Frest 5,000 0 - Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 Month Truckee Conner Forecasted Load Compared to Resources, April 2012 - March 2013 20,000 Ak, e.t 15,000 �b 10,000 6,000 t ■HLH Shortage I ■HLH Surplu s LLH Shortage [( LLH Surplus x `� � � h S�y' � s a.a�� P � � €'��i�•a� `-� y,Via* s • 4 W ;� � �`i � ss -!5,000 07, gg � -10,000 E re rr s ; :.�. .,.4a. ._.... ... .. _�.... ., .. .. ., x -1 5,000 Apr Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Month 11/21/2005 Truckee Donner Forecasted Average Load Compared to Average Resources 8,000 — - - - 1 6,000 PP. ..P 4,000 - - - - __ - - - _ _ ® H L H Shortage 2000 - --- - - - __ )Surplus/(I 4iP AF f� PPP ♦! PPP !! P! PPP !! ♦f♦ !f P♦ �- PPf Y 0 ff PPP - NP f" Shortage -21000 )Surplus/( -41 000 -6,000 _ - -8,000 -- - - - Apr-12 May- Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug- Sep- Oct-12 Nov- Dec- Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 12 12 12 12 12 Month Alternative 1 : RIPS goal of 15% emission free • Summary: — Total Cost is $8 ,472 , 970 or $45 .47 per MWh — Renewal Portfolio Standard • Goal 15% Emission free by 2012 • This mix of resources offers approx. 16.5% Emission free in 2012 — Goal met Alternative 2 : RIPS goal of 25% emission free • Resources — Coal : 11 MW 90% Capacity Factor — Wind : 13 MW 33% Capacity FactorMarket/ Natural Gas: 13 MW $7/mmBtu Gas at 8200 Heat Rate (Btu/kwh ) , 95% Capacity Factor — WAPA Allocation ( Hydro) 75% of wet year — Stampede (Small Hydro) Historical average (about 5500 MWh) Truckee-Donner Energy Load & Resources 450,000 j Alternative 2 (RIPS 25%) 400,000 Energy Load (MWh) " E E E 350,000 300,000 0,-0 o 0p ' i IPP3 A .0 250,000 Q. m--,-3% Growth oo0 a 2% Growth 150,000 E E 100,000 No Growth —*— h 50,000 z Energy History o r O N GO CO O N �' CO aO O N �t CD OO O N M CO O O O O O O N N N CN N M M M M M O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N N N CV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N CN N Year 11/15/2006 Truckee-Donner Peak Load & Resources 60 Alternative 2 (RPS 25%) Capacity MW 50 - _ _ ----- IPP 3 i 40 - - -- - - - .. r, f - p_..2% Growth 0c'-o ® © � 30 - ® � 0 p '-0 —o_ 1% Growth , 44, - 3 20 -*--No Growth 3 tt 10 n �a; \ —♦— v9 a v Monthly A, �. a� Peak o w History O CV � t0 CO O N �' tD 00 O N �' CO CO CDN f.0 00 O O O O O O N N C4 N N CO CO M M M �t O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N C14 N Year 11/15/2006 Truckee Danner Forecasted Load and Resources, April 2012 - March 2013 45,000 _... _..... 40,000 x 'y 35,000 \ Q �s� y � 30.000 Natural Gas 25,000 _x,--Wind a"v Y Stampede WAPA 20,000 Goal Load 16,000 10,000 \ 5,000 0 Apr Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Month 1 1/2 1 12005 Truckee Donner Forecasted Average Load and Average Resources 30,000 25,000 _ I~',l 20,000 Natural Gas 0000 Stam pede 15,000 - .. 0 WAPA 0 Wind Coal 10,000 - Load Frest 5,000 - 3 0 - � ! Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 Month Truckee Donner Forecasted Load Compared to Resources. April 2012 - March 2013 a,aaa77 a 15.000 F N. 10,000 L \ M u r ■HLH Shortage ■HLH Surplus 15 a0a Shortage ,�6 LLH Surplus s o v a x c 1 4?A S jj ME- aAi E -5,000 y { -10,000 No . I Apr Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct v Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Month 11�1 i2005 Truckee Donner Forecasted Average Load Compared to Average Resources 3,000 2,000 �Pt -- ::: ?;P ® HLH 1 000 Shortage _ - - )Surplus/( 0 .. ::: LLH Y '' -T Shortage :. )Surplus/( -1,000 - -2,000 i -3,000 - ------- ----- - — — Apr-12 May- Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug- Sep- Oct-12 Nov- Dec- Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 12 12 12 12 12 Month Alternative 2 : RPS goal of 25% emission free • Summary — Total Cost is $ 10,273,899 or $55. 13 per MWh — Renewal Portfolio Standard • Goal 25% Emission free by 2012, • This mix of resources offers approx. 28.9% Emission free in 2012 — Goal met Alternative 3 : RIPS goal of 20 % emission free • Resources — Coal : 1 5MW 90% Capacity Factor — Wind : 8 MW 33% Capacity Factor — Market/ Natural Gas: 8 MW $7/mmBtu Gas at 8200 Heat Rate (Btu/kwh), 95% Capacity Factor — WAPA Allocation (Hydro) 75% of wet year — Stampede (Small Hydro) Historical average (about 5500 MWh ) i Truckee-Donner Energy Load & Resources 450,000 ; 400,000 Alternative 3 (RPS 20%)-- G Energy Load (MWh) 350,000 - _ -- - - -- - 10, E - - - --- - - 0 0 300,000 0 0 ,0 Q .Q. E IPP 3 e 250,000 - — — - - L Q 01 .. ® _.�.._.3% Growth: F . .0 200,000 150,000 - - - t p.._ 2% Growth I 100,000 - tt — � —*—No Growth E 50,000 [ � � .� F• ova � � -s�, € Energy History History 0 ¢ O N V' CO CO Cfl 00 O N CO CO O O O O O O N N N N N C7 M M M CM K' O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N N N N N N N N N N N N CN N N N N N N N N Year 11/15/2006 Truckee-Donner Peak Load & Resources 60 i Alternative 3 (RIPS 20%) Capacity MW 50 - _ - - 1Em IPP 3 40 _ ,. 2% Growth .. p0 ® � � 30 -- - - � - -- ---- 0."' � 0 � � ® � j o,- 1% Growth 1 I 20 i —*—No Growth a 10 - A I �qv9 a' Monthly 0 Peak O N rt CO 00 O fV "gr (D OO O N Cm CO O N sT to pO O History O O O O O N N N N 04 M M M M M O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N N CV N N N N N N N CN N N N N N N CN N N N Year 11/15/2006 Truckee Conner Forecasted Lead and Resources, April 2012 - March 2013 5,000 _ M 40.000 21 36,000 5. T v4 r 30,000 - \ a _R �; . \ a Natur 25,000 _,. Winda v. d. �. s Stampede WAPA 20,000 low Goal Load 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Apr Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Month 11121/2005 Truckee Donner D Forecasted Average Load and Average Resources 1 o e g g 30,000 - 25,000 _ -- - - - -- -- --- - 20,000 Natural G ::. -J: a O Stampede 15,000 - - C WAPA 0 Wind 0 Coal 10,000 -Load Frest 5,000 0 000 Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 Month Truckee Danner Forecasted Lead Compared to Resources, April 2012 - March 2013 20,000 x \ 15,000 ` \s I r 10,000 mHLH x o 5 000 rtag ■HLH Surplus e LLH Shortage -� LLH Surplus s r P R M IM P � � �F Si mUP kt "T�p �i oa { IT ; �b« S 4 l -5,000 L � 15 § \ e `^ ".� \v —10,000 Apr Apr Apr May May Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar h1 o r1th 11/21/2005 Truckee Donner Forecasted Average Load Compared to Average Resources 4,000 -- 3,000 2,000 - - -- - - 91 H L H 1,000 Shortage i J i i 0 )Surplus/( . ... Y -1,000 - ,,, p L L H i - - Shortage -2,000 - - - - )Surplus/( -3)000 -5,000 - - _ -6,000 Apr-12 May- Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug- Sep- Oct-12 Nov- Dec- Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 12 12 12 12 12 Month Alternative 3 : RPS goal of 20 % emission free • Summary: — Total Cost is $9 ,233 ,491 or $49 . 55 per MWh — Renewal Portfolio Standard • Goal 20% Emission free by 2012, • This mix of resources offers approx. 22.69% Emission free in 2012 — Goal met Alternative 4 : Market (similar to current contract) • Resources — Market similar to current Contract — WAPA Allocation ( Hydro) 75% of wet year — Stampede (Small Hydro) Historical average (about 5500 MWh) • Summary — Total Cost is about $ 13,058, 056 or $70 . 1 per MWh — Very little additional room left for Alternative resources 4 Integrated Resource Plan Summary— Possible Resource Mixes Alternative 1 : RIPS oal of 15% emission free — Total Cost is ?8,472,970 or $45.47 per MWh — Renewal Portfolio Standard • Goal 15% Emission free by 2012 • This mix of resources offers approx. 16.5% Emission free in 2012 — Goal met • Alternative 2: RIPS goal of 25% emission free — Total Cost is $10,273,899 or $55.13 per MWh k — Renewal Portfolio Standard E • Goal 25% by 2012, • This mix of resources offers approx. 28.9% Emission free in 2012 — Goal met • Alternative 3: RIPS goal of 20% emission free — Total Cost is $9,233,491 or $49.55 per MWh — Renewal Portfolio Standard • Goal 20% by 2012, • This mix of resources offers approx. 22.69% Emission free in 2012 — Goal met • Alternative 4: Market (similar to current contract) Total Cost is about $13,058,056 or about $70.1 per MWh Very little additional room left for Alternative resources Comparison Summary Purchased Power Costs Only Alt 1 Alt 2 Alt 3 Alt 4 RPS 15% RPS 25% RPS 20% Market Total Cost $8,472,970 $10,273,899 $9,233,491 $13,058,056 Cost $45.47/MWh $55. 13/MWh $49.55/MWh $70. 1/MWh $/MWh RPS Goal 15% 25% 20% 15% Goal Met Yes Yes Yes ° /0 21 .2 /0° 8.9 /o° 54.2 Difference from Alt 1 i Historical Perspective • Past Power prices are very volatile • The Future Market prices look very volatile. • District needs to stabilize its costs compared to Market Risk • Avoid Idacorp issue • See Graph 4 i California " Market" Perspective Baseload Wholesale Electricity Prices i 140 120 k 100 77 80 60r 0 40 r u f 20 kb So R R '� � Off' O O � �tK Year 11/27/06 Transmission • Truckee Donner PUD is unique in California • Truckee Donner PUD is a Transmission Dependent Utility (TDU) of Sierra Power Company • Truckee's best option are east ( Idaho and Utah ) • Truckee Donner PUD's has at Gonder Substation in Nevada near the Utah border • With UAMPS Truckee can get to Wyoming Wind projects • The Plan Truckee has a Plan for Balanced Portfolio • Plan includes Renewable Power (Green ) • Who is UAMPS • Cost Based • Project Based • Correct IPP 1 2 &3 info