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Home My WebLink About18-Discussion of 2012 Purchase Power Load, Resources, Peaks & Comparison to 2012 Budget ForecastAgenda Item # 18 WORKSHOP To: Board of Directors From: Stephen Hollabaugh Date: February 20, 2013 Subject: Discussion of 2012 Purchase Power Load, Resources, Peaks, and Comparison to 2012 Budget Forecast 1. WHY THIS MATTER IS BEFORE THE BOARD This workshop is to review the District's actual versus budgeted purchase power costs and energy consumption for 2012. 2. HISTORY On October 5, 2011 the workshop "FY12 and FY13 Budget: Purchase Power Plan" was presented to the Board. This workshop covered the following topics: Mission Statement and Objectives, Renewable Portfolio Standard Target, Conservation as First Resource, Diversified Power Supply Plan, Future Renewable Resources, Proposed Resources for 2012, Risk to Budget Analysis and 2012 Forecast Costs. The Purchase Power Plan 2012 Budget was approved by the Board on November 16, 2011. The 2012 Purchase Power Plan budgeted amounts, based on a forecasted energy purchase of 162,000 MWh, are shown in the following table: Cost Component Budget $ per MWh Total Energy Supply - Various $10,757,413 $66.40 Transmission Wheeling - SPPC $ 1,049,546 $ 6.48 Scheduling - NCPA $ 68,859 $ 0.42 Central Valley Project - WAPA $-28,012 $ -0.17 Totals $11,847,806 $73.13 Historical data for 2012 and prior years to 2005 is included for reference on Attachment A. 3. NEW INFORMATION Summary budgeted versus actual amounts for 2012 are shown in the following table: Description Budget Actual Total Energy Purchases $11,847,806 $10,082,208 Total Energy Consumption, MWh 162,000 154,976 Purchase Cost per MWh $73.13 $65.06 The total purchased power costs were 14.9% less than budgeted and total energy consumption was about 4.3% less than forecasted during 2012. The two major factors that affect the total purchased power cost are resource cost and energy consumption by our customers. While the forecasted energy consumption value of 162,000 MWh was close (within 5%) to the actual amount, the resource cost was much less than budgeted. This was due to: • Delayed operational date of Horse Butte Wind Project (August 15, 2012) • Purchase power cost from the Market to replace Horse Butte generation • Lower than expected natural gas prices • Lower than expected UAMPS pool price for power • AB 32 auction revenues All these factors helped to reduce the District's actual purchased energy cost to $65.06 per MWh, about 11 % below budget. Energy costs and consumption by month are graphically depicted below. 7 udgeted versus actual power purchase cost for 2012 is shown in graph below: 2 0 1 2 Pow e r Purchase Cost $ 14,000,000 $ 1 2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 $ 1 0 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 $ 8 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 $ 6, 0 0 0' 0 0 0 $ 4 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 $ 2 ,0 0 0 ,0 0 0 $ 0 -$ 2' 0 0 0 '0 0 0 kM A B 32 Auction Revenues �M is Costs W ECC, W REGIS, e tc MW APA cost/(cred it) tow and M W h s 1111ir5 c h e d u lin i MT r a n s m i s s i o n 81Total Ene rgy 5u pply Budgeted versus actual monthly MWh consumption for 2012 is shown in 18,000 16,000 14,000 M 12,000 W It 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2012 Monthly E ner9Y Consumption JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT 0CT NOV DEC OBudgeted Actual h below: The Monthly Peak MW for 2008 through 2012 is shown in the graph below: 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 K4xYMy Peak NAN 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 JAN M MAR APR M4Y JM AJLY " SWr M NW SEC ■ 2012 Peak NMI 2011 Peak NMI 2010 Peak MN 2009 Peak MAt 2008 Peak NMI The District experienced its peak load of 36.9 MW in December. The summer months have a constant load with a small peak in July. On December 7, 2011 the Board approved the Renewable Energy Resources Procurement Plan per Senate bill 1x2. This plan defines the minimum required percentage of renewables per compliance period based on total retail energy sales. Compliance periods and percent renewables are as follows: Period 1 - January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2013 - 20% Period 2 - January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2016 - 25% Period 3 - January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2020 - 33% The District's estimated renewable energy portfolio performance for 2012 is shown in the table below: Eligible Renewables (CPLIC) MWh REC's % Sales Small Hydro 2,970 2.0% Landfill Gas 18,178 12.5% Wind 15,047 10.3% REC's (Wind) 18,000 12.3% Solar 0 0.0% Totals 54,195 37.1% 4. FISCAL IMPACT Detailed budgeted versus actual amounts for 2012 are shown in the following table: Power Purchases, MWh Total Energy Purchase, MWh Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget Power Purchase Costs Total Energy Supply - UAMPS, WAPA, etc Transmission - NV Energy Scheduling - NCPA WAPA cost/(credit) NCPA Power Purchase Misc Costs: WECC, WREGIS, etc. AB 32 Auction Revenues Total Power Purchase Cost $ Over/(Under) Budget Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget Purchase Cost per MWh Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget Peak Load Information District Peak Load, MW Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget 5. RECOMMENDATION Receive and comment on this report. Stephen Hollabaugh Assistant General Manager Budget Actual 162,000 154,976 -4.30% Budget Actual $ 10,757,413 $ 9,508,579 $ 1,049,546 $ 752,334 $ 68,859 $ 61,838 $ (28,012) $ (14,051) $ 6,505 $ 9,164 $ (242,160) $ 11,847,806 $ 10,082,209 $ (1,765,597) -14.90% $73.13 $65.06 -11.05% Budget Actual 36 36.9 2.50% Michael D. Holley General Manager Attachment A Summary Historical Energy Usage Data 2005 through 2012 Energy Purchases - MWh Delivered to Transmission Total Bulk Energy Year buDstations system Losses (1) Purchased 2012 150,996 3,980 1%4,976 2011 156,407 4,137 160,544 2010 154,483 4,011 158,494 2009 153,677 4,018 157,695 2008 156,113 4,076 160,189 2007 154,342 4,042 158,384 2006 153,210 4,018 _ 2005 142,852 3,767 146,619 Actual vs. Budgeted Energy Purchases - MWh Year Actual Budget % Difference 2012 154,976 162,000 4.3% 2011 160,544 162,000 0.9% 2010 1587,494 160,000 _ 0.9% 2009 157,695 163,220 3.4% 2008 160,189 161,604-W 0.9% 2007 158,384 156,963 -0.9% 2006 157,228 150,168 - " 'O/ 2005 146,619 145,382 Energy Sales to Customers - MWh Change from Previous Year Energy Sales, MWh Year, % 2012 146,014 _ - .gib 2011 149,978 1.58% 2010 147,647 2009 146,875 -0.96% 2008 148,305 0.83% 2007 147,091 1.96% 2006 144,269 5.82% 2005 136,339 ----- Distribution System Losses - MWh Delivered to Losses as a Year Losses (2) Substations % of Delivered to Subs 2012 4,981 150,996 3.3% 2011 6,429 156,407 4.1 % 2010 6,836 154,483 4.4% 2009 6,802 153,677 4.4% 2008 7,808 156,113 5.0% 2007 7,251 154,342 4.7% 2006 8,941 153,210 5.8% 2005 6,513 142,852 4.6% Notes: 1 Transmission System Losses: This is the amount of MWh that NVEnergy requires the District to pay by tariff as a loss. This is defined as a fixed percentage of MWh Delivered to the District 2 Distribution System Losses: This is the difference between energy delivered to our substations and what is sold to District customers. Historically this value has been about 4% to 5%. Truckee Donner Public Utility District Purchased Power Load Data Total Load - MWH (including transmission losses) Peak MW Total Load - MWH % Actual --- Above or (below) Budget Purchases (All in MWh) Total Schedule All MWH Purchases - from All Suppliers Expenditures Total Energy Supply - UAMPS, WAPA, Geo, etc Transmission - SPPCo. Scheduling - NCPA WAPA cost/(credit) toward MWh's WAPA (credit) used toward purchased power Misc Costs: WECC, WREGIS etc. AB 32 Auction Revenues Total Expenditures $ Over/(Under) Budget % Over/(Under) Budget Total Unit Cost of Purchased Power $/MWh % Over/(Under) Budget Note: Through Dec 2012, the District has purchased and has paid 2012 Budget vs Actual 2012 2012 Actual Budget 154,976 162,000 36.9 36.0 .3% 161,993 162,000 Actual Budget $9,508,579 $10,757,413 $752,334 $1,049,546 $61,838 $68,859 ($14,051) ($28,012) $6,505 $9,164 ($242,160) Actual Budget $10,082,208 $11,847,806 ($1,765,597) -14.90% Actual Budget $65.06 $73.13 -11.05% -4.3% less energy than budgeted -14.90% less than budgeted. $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 -$2,000,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 M 12,000 W 10,000 h 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 2012 Power Purchase Cost $11,847,806 $10,082,208 AB 32 Auction Revenues ■ Misc Costs: WECC, WREGIS, etc ■ WAPA cost/(credit) toward MWh's Scheduling e Transmission ■ Total Energy Supply 2012 Monthly Energy Consumption >,JJ PJc, 5�O& ■ Budgeted Actual 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Monthly Peak MW 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC ■ 2012 Peak MW ■ 2011 Peak MW ■ 2010 Peak MW ■ 2009 Peak MW ■ 2008 Peak MW Total Bulk Power, Actual vs Budget MWh 170,000 160,000 150,000 L 140,000 s 3 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 r-1 fV M Ln lD I*_ CO m O r-q fV O O O O O O O O O r-1 r-I r-I O O O O O O O O O O O O fV fV fV fV fV fV fV fV fV fV fV fV Actual MWh Budget MWh Sales MWh