HomeMy WebLinkAbout14 Financial Master Plan Agenda Item # 14
Public Utility District I
WORKSHOP
To: Board of Directors
From: Bob Mescher
Date: February 03, 2010
Subject: Discussion of Historical Estimates of Past Financial Master Plans as
Compared to Actual Results
1. WHY THIS MATTER IS BEFORE THE BOARD
The Board requested staff to present a comparison of the estimates used in the past
Financial Master Plans.
2. HISTORY
The Financial Master Plan is a tool to help the Board and staff understand how the
proposed budget impacts long-term goals. It includes a projection of the revenue and
expenses for an extended period of time, based on actual results and a set of
assumptions. The Financial Master Plan is reviewed to ensure that the proposed
budget is consistent with long-term goals.
At the last discussion of the Financial Master Plan, the Board requested staff to
present a comparison of the estimates used in the past Financial Master Plans.
3. NEW INFORMATION
Attached are tables and graphs comparing the projections of the past four Financial
Master Plans and the actual results for FY07 through FY09.
Please note that three years of actual results to compare to the projections is really
not enough data to indicate accuracy or a pattern. Staff will continue to update these
tables and graphs to present them with the future Financial Master Plans.
Attachment 1
Electric Revenue was projected conservatively low in 2006, but the next two
projections were closer and aggressively higher as compared to 2009 actual
results.
Purchased Power pricing and demand has been more volatile than the
projections. Actual costs have been more difficult to project.
Other Electric Expenses have been easier to predict and are near the
projections for all three years.
Electric Rates are shown for your reference.
Water Revenue was projected conservatively low for all years, but the 2008
projection of 2009 was closer to actual.
Water Expenses have been easier to predict and are near the projections for all
three years.
Water Rates are shown for your reference.
District Growth in 2009 was aggressively projected for all years. The Financial
master Plan that was presented at the end of last year is more conservative.
Attachment 2 is a graph of the projected and actual electric revenue. The trend or
slope of the revenues are similar in the early periods.
Attachment 3 is a graph of projected and actual purchased power costs. It illustrates
the volatility of the actual pricing and demand. An established rate reserve helps
protect the District from this volatility.
Attachment 4 is a graph of projected and actual other electric expenses. The
projections are similar to actual expenses.
Attachment 5 is a graph of the projected and actual water revenue. The projections
were conservatively low as compare to the actual results. The water meter surcharge
ending in 2013 is reflected in the 2008 and 2009 projections.
Attachment 6 is a graph of projected and actual water expenses. The projections are
similar to actual expenses.
4. FISCAL IMPACT
There is no fiscal impact associated with this workshop.
5. RECOMMENDATION
Receive this report and provide comments to staff.
Mary Chapman Michael D. Holley
Administrative Services Manager General Manager
Truckee Donner Public Utility District Attachment 1
Financial Master Plan Comparison to Actual
for Plans Prepared in 2006 through 2008
(in thousands of dollars)
Projected for % Var from
2007 2008 2009 2009 Actual
Prepared in
Electric Revenue
2006 $ 20,101 $ 20,503 $ 20,913 (8%)
2007 $ 22,637 $ 23,536 4%
2008 $ 23,669 4%
Actual $ 21,100 $ 22,851 $ 22,633 0%
Purchased Power
2006 $ 9,287 $ 10,812 $ 11,352 15%
2007 $ 11,106 $ 11,329 15%
2008 $ 11,105 13%
Actual $ 9,404 $ 10,627 $ 9,653 0%
Electric Expenses
(excluding purchased power) 2006 $ 6,159 $ 7,344 $ 7,349 (2%)
2007 $ 6,960 $ 7,231 (3%)
2008 $ 7,590 2%
Actual $ 6,010 $ 7,144 $ 7,468 0%
Electric Rates
2006 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2007 7.00% 3.00%
2008 3.00%
Actual 0.00% 7.00% 3.00%
Page 1 of 2
Truckee Donner Public Utility District Attachment 1
Financial Master Plan Comparison to Actual
for Plans Prepared in 2006 through 2008
(in thousands of dollars)
Projected for % Var from
2007 2008 2009 2009 Actual
Prepared in
Water Revenue
2006 $ 9,375 $ 10,086 $ 10,303 (7%)
2007 $ 9,636 $ 9,717 (13%)
2008 $ 10,759 (2%)
Actual $ 9,771 $ 10,432 $ 11,009 0%
Water Expenses
2006 $ 6,429 $ 6,622 $ 6,821 3%
2007 $ 6,588 $ 6,826 3%
2008 $ 6,926 4%
Actual $ 6,651 $ 6,380 $ 6,642 0%
Water Rates
2006 6.00% 6.00% 0.00%
2007 6.00% 0.00%
2008 0.00%
Actual 6.00% 6.00% 0.00%
District Growth
2006 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
2007 1.00% 1.00%
2008 1.00%
Actual 1.30% 1.10% 0.10%
Page 2of2
Electric Revenue Attachment 2
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FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
•••••2006 Projection •2007 Projection • 2008 Projection o c,2009 Projection Actual
Purchased Power Attachment 3
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FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
•••••2006 Projection •2007 Projection 2008 Projection o c=2009 Projection Actual
Electric Expenses Attachment 4
12,000 (excluding purchased power)
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FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
•9•••2006 Projection —•2007 Projection • 2008 Projection o c=2009 Projection Actual
Water Revenue Attachment 5
$16,000
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FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
•••••2006 Projection ��•2007 Projection • 2008 Projection o —2009 Projection Actual
Water Expenses Attachment 6
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FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
•••••2006 Projection ��•2007 Projection � 9 2008 Projection o —2009 Projection Actual