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Home My WebLink About14 2011 Purchase Power Load, Resources, Peaks, Comparriosn to 2011 Budget Agenda Item # 14TRUCKEE DONNER WORK HOP To: Board of Directors From: Stephen Hollabaugh Date: March 07, 2012 Subject: Discussion of 2011 Purchase Power Load, Resources, Peaks, Comparison to 2011 Budget Forecast 1. WHY THIS MATTER IS BEFORE THE BOARD This workshop is to review the District's actual versus budgeted purchase power costs and energy consumption for 2011. 2. HISTORY On October 21, 2009 the workshop "Purchase Power Plan - 2010-2011 Budget Review" was presented to the Board. This workshop covered the following topics: Mission Statement and Objectives, Renewable Portfolio Standard Target, Conservation as First Resource, Diversified Power Supply Plan, Future Renewable Resources, Proposed Resources for 2011, Risk to Budget Analysis and 2011 Forecast Costs. The Purchase Power Plan 2011 Budget was approved by the Board on November 18, 2009. The 2011 Plan budgeted amounts, based on a forecasted energy purchase of 162,000 MWh, are shown in the following table: Cost Component Budget $ per MWh Total Energy Supply- Various $10,1309484 $62.53 Transmission Wheeling - SPPC $ 11043,766 $ 6.44 Scheduling - NCPA $ 77,993 $ 0.48 Central Valley Project- WAPA $ 76,416 $ 0.47 Totals $11,328,658 $69.93 Historical data for 2011 and prior years to 2005 is included for reference on Attachment A. 3. NEW INFORMATION Summary budgeted versus actual amounts for 2011 are shown in the following table: Description Budget Actual Total Energy Purchases $11 Y3289658 $10,782,247 Total Energy Consumption, MWh 162,000 160,544 Purchase Cost per MWh $69.93 $67.16 The total purchased power costs were 4.8% less than budgeted and total energy consumption was about 0.9% less than forecasted during 2011. The two major factors that affect the total purchased power cost are resource cost and energy consumption by our customers. While the forecasted energy consumption value of 162,000 MWh was very close to the actual amount, the resource cost was less than budgeted. This was due to the cost difference between UAMP's actual generation resources used during 2011 as opposed to our forecast of generation resources. In addition, the cost of natural gas was lower than forecasted during 2011. The lower than expected natural gas prices resulted in a lower market price for power, and a lower DAMPS pool price for power. All these factors helped to reduce the District's actual purchased energy cost to $67.16 per MWh, about 4.0% below budget. Energy costs and consumption by month are graphically depicted below. The forecast versus actual power purchase cost for 2011 is shown in the following graph. 2011 Poorer Purchase Cost $12,000,000 $110 328,658 S10,78Z247 $10, , o ■WAPA cost/(credit)toward $810000000 M WIV S Scheduling-N CPA $4, ,000 ■Transmission-SPPCo. $2,000,000 s Total Energy Supply- $0 Budget Actual The forecast versus actual monthly MWh consumption for 2011 is shown in the following graph. ------------------- ---------------- 2011 NbM (`. sun ■Eger MUM Y Y,A�O W i fim 44UJ= JIW M 1WIR AM Uff JU E aiY AM SW OQ FM Yc The Monthly Peak MW for 2008 through 2011 is shown in the following graph. Monthly Peak MW 2008, 2009p 2010,2A11 40.0 35.0 30'0 ■2011 Peak MW 25.0 20.0 ■2010 Peak MW 15.0 N 2009 Peak NW 10.0 ■2008 Peak MW 5.0 0.0 AN FM MAR APR MAY JUKE JULY AUG SOT Off NM 0M The District normally experiences its peak load in December, however the 2011 peak load occurred in February. The summer months have a constant load with a small peak in July. On December 7, 2011 the Board approved the Renewable Energy Resources Procurement Plan per Senate bill 1 x2. This plan defines the minimum required percentage of renewables per compliance period based on total retail energy sales. Compliance periods and percent renewables are as follows: Period 1 - January 1, 2011 through December 31, 2013 - 20% Period 2 - January 1, 2014 through December 31, 2016 - 25% Period 3 - January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2020 - 33% The District's renewable energy portfolio performance for 2011 is shown in the table below: Eligible Renewables (CPUC) MWh Sales % Sales Small Hydro 51889 3.9% Landfill Gas 19,639 13.1% Wind 450 0.3% Recs (Wind) 23,550 15.7% Solar 0 0.0% Totals 49,528 33.0% 4. FISCAL IMPACT Detailed budgeted versus actual amounts for 2011 are shown in the following table: Power Purchases, MWh Budget Actual Total Energy Purchase, MWh 1629000 160,544 Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget -0.9% Power Purchase Costs Budget Actual Total Energy Supply- UAMPS, WAPA, etc $101130,484 $10,039v485 Transmission - NV Energy $ 1,043,766 $ 848,564 Scheduling - NCPA $ 779993 $ 651604 WAPA cost/(credit) $ 76,416 ($ 171,416) Total Power Purchase Cost $11,328,658 $10,782,247 $ Over/(Under) Budget ($ 546,412) Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget -4.8% Purchase Cost per MWh $69.93 $67.16 Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget -4.0% Peak Load Information Budget Actual District Peak Load, MW 36 32.8 Percent Difference, Actual vs. Budget -8.9% 5. RECOMMENDATION Receive and comment on this report. Stephen Hollabaugh Michael D. Holley Assistant General Manager General Manager Attachment A Summary Historical Energy Usage Data 2005 through 2011 Energy Purchases - MWh Delivered to Transmission Total Bulk Energy Year Substations System Losses(1) Purchased 2011 156,407 41$137 160,544 2009 153,677 4,018 157,695 �... ,;.r.,.r,f:.... .t '� 1...r:. ,•..,,u .,n..a : +•..,:x. .., t::..: ,s,a , g..$ ;: ,:,. ..::7'. S 7 xr � �:.Y•..- •.O .:... N..S:.Ht ..F W.'.t,n^r- .:r"•,. , ..v.. .S r ,. .:.. .s Ca.:.........:. .{� �..r t„w;: -.x r.. ., -......... a.. .a....r.e,...,a•,.a 9.x '....:, ,.. .,.-: ,. -... .. .. a n. .:.e..; '. 2007 154,342 4,042 158,384 t 01, : +,:na ,, ,. -r..v,_:-�.,�s' ..:-;sn q r,rr• F •;:.,,. ,,:>. _:-,: � ,::::..r?.i r• �.r...£aF_:x.: ._ :.:..t l:,..Y Y,. .>f f:. a. ,':..:Y• ..:- ...... ..,t '..' :.�'.. .'.:... au � ,::at x a`„-j 2005 142,852 3,767 146,619 Actual vs. Budgeted Energy Purchases - MWh Year Actual Budget % Difference 2011 160,544 162,000 0.9% t t 7 2009 157,695 163,220 3.4% a �C Y r. 2007 158,384 156,963 -0.9% MW x i5 t„ d 7:: i'•ar 2005 146,619 145,382 -0.9% Energy Sales to Customers - MWh Change from Previous Year Energy Sales, MWh Year, 2011 149,978 1.58% 2 a r3• x?b• t x,,rx, ti fit' .7. } ? 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'-�,ta s. .... _ -Cti .o....°S'. .,.... ,S..� ..5,: : ,a..._... ,_ .. ....,r,..,a•., _::.... ,w- .-:.,.-'..: ............. . 3 -1 ,:.>...._. ...x.,..._a.. ._..._,,. ,..:. .._....,. ....a'.,.... ..w.... .. _:.,,. -._.. .�7 :-a... .. ..,.._..-... ._.._ ++, ,.7 -1:xa a3 -7 �56. �s a aim- 2005 6,513 142,852 4.6% Notes: 1 Transmission System Losses: This is the amount of MWh that NVEnergy requires the District to pay by tariff as a loss. This is defined as a fixed percentage of MWh Delivered to the District 2 Distribution System Losses: This is the difference between energy delivered to our substations and what is sold to District customers. Historically this value has been about 4%to 5%. Truckee Donner Public Utility District 2011 Budget vs Actual Purchased Power 2011 2011 Actual Budget Load Data Total Load-MWH (including transmission losses) 160,544 1620000 Peak MW 32.8 36.0 Total Load-MWH %Actual---Above or(below) Budget -0.9% Purchases (All in MWh) Total Schedule All MWH Purchases-from All Suppliers 160,544 162,000 Expenditures Actual Budget Total Energy Supply- UAMPS, WAPA, Geo, etc $10,039,485 $10,.1301484 Transmission -SPPCo. $848,564 $1,043,766 Scheduling-NCPA $65,,604 $77,993 WAPA cost/(credit)toward MWh's ($171..406) $76,416 Actual Budget Total Expenditures $10,782,247 $11,.328,.658 $ Over/(Under) Budget ($546,412) Over/(Under) Budget -4.82% Actual Budget Total Unit Cost of Purchased Power$/MWh $67.16 $69-93 Over/(Under) Budget -3.96% Note: Through Dec 2011, the District has purchased -0.9% less energy than budgeted and has paid -4.82% less than budgeted.